The outcome of Israel's election hung in the balance as of Wednesday, with both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot appearing to be well off the numbers needed to form a governing coalition.
An updated Channel 13 poll early Wednesday put both blocs at 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the Times of Israel reported. A coalition needs 61 to be able to govern. Channel 12 and Kan 11 showed Eisenkot's bloc slightly ahead at 52-50. Arab-led parties, which belong to neither camp, were projected at 17 to 18 seats, their strongest showing ever.
Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, declared victory and said the preliminary results should give him the first right to try to form a government. "The initial exit poll results indicate a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and his October 7 government," he said in a statement on X .
Exit polls are not the official results, which are formally published a week after the election, on Nov. 4. Around 77.7% of eligible voters turned out to cast their ballots, the highest in a Knesset election in 27 years , according to the Central Elections Committee.
The vote came as Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023 attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's dominance of Israeli politics since 2009.
Netanyahu's supporters credit him with steering Israel through the war and standing up to international pressure, while critics point to his long-running corruption trial, controversial judicial overhaul efforts, and handling of the Gaza war as evidence that he is unfit for office. Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over the Gaza campaign, which he has rejected.
The historic Arab-party result is a factor to watch in coalition talks. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas said that "our vote will change the government." Joint List faction chairman Ahmad Tibi had previously outlined a plan to prevent Netanyahu from remaining in power after the elections, according to the Jerusalem Post .
The pro-Palestinian stance of Arab-led parties aligns them more closely with Eisenkot than with Netanyahu, said Amin Saikal, an adjunct senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, though neither man has said he would embrace them.
"Even if Eisenkot's alliance wins more seats, it's less likely to be able to form a governing majority without including Arab and left-wing parties," said Michael Feller, chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy. "The next government's policies on Iran, Palestine and security may otherwise stay the same."
However, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, whose party is projected at seven to nine seats and is currently in the opposition bloc with Eisenkot, refused during the campaign to rely on Arab parties.
Earlier on Tuesday, Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners warned of strong Arab participation in the vote, drawing accusations of racism from opponents.
"If we don't wake up now, we'll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmed Tibi," he said , after a series of posts highlighting long queues at polling stations in Arab communities.
Even if Eisenkot ends up with more seats, Netanyahu may use the upcoming weeks or months to his advantage by seeking to stall the formation of the new government, said Amin Saikal, an adjunct senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
The prime minister will "fight for his political survival," Saikal said.
