A Democratic candidate for governor in the US state of Ohio is now favoured by multiple election forecasters to win her race after days of backlash over an attack ad targeting her.
The ad was paid for by the campaign of Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in one of the nation's most closely-watched and expensive races for state office that had already been dubbed one of the "ugliest in the country" by the New York Times.
The ad, which goes after Ramaswamy's Democratic rival Amy Acton, features Acton's estranged mother calling her a "liar".
Acton's mother lost custody of her children decades ago after her husband was charged with raping Acton as a child.
By the weekend, several days after the ad began circulating, both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted their election forecasts for the Ohio governor's race from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat".
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The US midterm elections are less than two weeks away. Ramaswamy is endorsed by US President Donald Trump, who has defended the ad despite intense backlash from across the political spectrum.
The "high risk ploy" to change the narrative of the race has "backfired spectacularly", Republican political consultant Mike Madrid told SBS News in a text message. "The timing suggests they knew there was a very high chance of that but they had no option."
The 60-second ad features Acton’s birth mother, Donna Arthur.
"It's not easy for a mother to say this, but Amy has a serious problem," she says in the video. "People can change, but first they have to tell the truth, and my daughter still isn't doing that."
"Don't vote for people who lie. Don't let her become your governor."
The ad began circulating on social media earlier this week, but its origins were not clear. Ramaswamy's campaign later confirmed it was behind the ad and would spend $4 million (AU$5.7 million) to promote it both online and on television.
Acton says she has not seen her mother in nearly 50 years. Court documents show her stepfather, Cledith Arthur, was arrested and charged in 1978 with raping his stepdaughter when she was 12.
Cledith Arthur reportedly fled after his arrest and remained a fugitive until his death in 2004.
Acton, a doctor who used to serve as Ohio's state health director, has made no secret of facing homelessness and abuse as a child. She has denounced her opponent over the ad, which she called "despicable".
"I won't normalise somebody who has said that my childhood is just something I'm complaining about, who today just released an ad using my birth mother, who I was removed from at the age of 12 for severe abuse and neglect, and sexual abuse," she told Spectrum News, a cable news outlet in Ohio.
She said Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, has a "lifelong pattern" of making personal attacks, including during his run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.
Acton has since released a statement and video featuring her brother, Philip Stearns, who recalled his older sister taking "the worst" of the abuse they faced as children in order to protect him.
A number of Republicans have joined Democrats in condemning the ad.
Casey Putsch, a YouTube provocateur who ran against Ramaswamy for the Republican nomination in the Ohio governor's race, said the ad was "pretty damn low" and he would now be voting for Acton following its release.
Ohio's current Republican governor Mike DeWine sided with Acton over her Republican rival despite having endorsed Ramaswamy.
DeWine called the ad "deeply, deeply troubling" and said it was wrong to run it.
"I would urge Ramaswamy’s campaign to take this down," he said.
Every living full-term governor of Ohio — two Democrats and three Republicans — has spoken out against the ad.
Trump and vice president JD Vance have both defended the ad, as has Ramaswamy, who accused Democrats of "lying about an ad that is about lying".
Trump rebuked DeWine for criticising the ad and suggested the Ohio governor "probably wants a Democrat to win".
"I suggested, on the other hand, that Vivek should keep it up, and let everyone listen to the mother of a defective, dishonest, and incapable Candidate, explain how the daughter is a DISASTER who, uncontrollably, lies, cheats, and steals!" he wrote in a lengthy social media post.
Vance said the ad "calls it out like it is and calls Amy Acton a liar".
Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman told the NewsNation cable news network that while political attack ads often work, this one was "so outrageously offensive it is backfiring".
Madrid told SBS News the timing of the ad's release suggested the Ramaswamy campaign was aware it was on a trajectory to lose.
A Marist poll of voters last week indicated Acton was leading Ramaswamy by seven percentage points among likely voters in Ohio.
"The ad was an attempt to stop the hemorrhaging of Republican voters," Madrid said.
"They knew there would be blowback but had to change the narrative of the race or they'd lose."
A variety of recent polls still indicated it will be a close race. Democrats have won just one of the last nine gubernatorial elections in Ohio.
Sabato's Crystal Ball, an election forecasting site run by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, noted that in the 2018 midterms, Republicans ended up performing about 6 percentage points better than polls had suggested they would late in the race.
A similar understatement could allow Ramaswamy to overcome his current deficit, the forecaster said.
— With additional reporting by the Associated Press
