On Nov. 3, Sean Menon, a 29-year-old from Dublin, Ohio, was at an election night watch party rooting hard for Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy . He was hopeful Ramaswamy would win for political reasons, but also because he had $5,000 riding on that outcome .
In the year leading up to the election, Menon says he bought $5,000 worth of contracts on Kalshi predicting that Ramaswamy would win the gubernatorial race. CNBC Make It was not able to independently verify the contract purchase, and Menon says he no longer has a Kalshi account.
Traders put more than $18.6 million on the Ohio governor race on Kalshi, according to the platform . On Polymarket, traders bought more than $2.8 million in contracts for the race .
Menon says he'd previously made money on prediction markets during the 2024 presidential election, betting that his independent research on the election could give him an edge over polling and markets he says were less accurate at the time. His 2026 election contract was "moreso just an emotional bet," he tells CNBC Make It.
"I was expecting it to go my way, but obviously I was wrong," he says.
When Menon bought them, he says each Ramaswamy "yes" contract was worth about 40 cents, implying he had about a 40% chance to win. Kalshi pays a dollar per winning contract, meaning Menon would have made about 60 cents on each had Ramaswamy won, totaling around $7,500 in profit before fees.
According to Kalshi's tracker, Ramaswamy's odds peaked in February 2025 at 85%. His and Democratic opponent Amy Acton's odds evened out in March 2026. Ramaswamy became the favorite again with his odds rising to nearly 56% in July 2026. Had Menon sold all his contracts at that time, he could have reaped a $2,000 profit before fees. But Ramaswamy's odds started falling in August and continued to decline through the remainder of the race. Menon still hoped he'd pull off an election night upset. The Associated Press called the race for Acton just before 11 p.m. on Nov. 3.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use the same methodologies as traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.
Though Menon was disappointed in the loss, it didn't dispel his confidence in prediction markets, and he doesn't see those trades as part of his long-term financial strategy. Menon told The Washington Post on election night that he and his girlfriend would "have to cut back their expenses for a while," since they needed a cash cushion for an upcoming move to California. But, "we're gonna be OK," he tells CNBC Make It.
When it comes to any kind of gambling, whether through a prediction market, a sportsbook or a casino, financial experts generally warn against doing so with any money they're not prepared to lose.
"My honest advice: Don't do it," says Eileen Olson, certified financial planner and founder of Emerald Wealth . "Betting on events has become part of the culture, and prediction markets make it feel more like investing than gambling. It isn't."
She encourages individuals to "only use 'fun money'" when making trades on prediction markets and ensure your emergency savings or money you need for a specific goal like moving are kept separate from that leisure fund.
Andrew Lendnal, head of financial wellness at wealth management firm Wealthspire adds that traders should "only [be] using what's left after bills, savings and retirement plan contributions are covered." Most people should keep it "to a small share of their monthly spending money," he says.
Menon says his activities are in line with that advice: "I try to keep bets small-scale or reasonable. Like, you got to be willing to lose it all and not put you in financial peril," he says.
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