New Zealanders will soon know their election results after the tightest campaign this century. However, if the polls are correct, they may not know their likely government for another three weeks.
Polling places closed nationwide at 7pm local time (5pm AEDT) on Saturday. More than 3 million Kiwis are expected to have voted after a campaign dominated by cost of living issues.
Chris Luxon’s conservative coalition of his National Party, free-marketers ACT and the populists NZ First are seeking a second term.
Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, along with fellow opposition parties the Greens and the Maori Party, are hoping to unseat the coalition and make history.
If they win, it will be the first time in National’s 90-year history the centre-right party hasn’t won a second term in government.
Polling shows both blocs falling short of a majority, with the election outcome hanging on two factors : whether new party Opportunity makes it into parliament, or if there is an overhang.
Opportunity, a centrist party similar to Australia’s teals, appears set to win its first parliamentary seats. If it crosses the 5 per cent threshold needed to elect and return MPs, it could also hold the balance of power and play kingmaker.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has said she is open to partnering with either side , dependent on policy alignment, and will attempt to negotiate with the biggest party first.
The election may also turn on strategic voting, which has been encouraged by right-wing parties and their supporters, as well as the Maori Party.
They argue for Kiwis to vote in such a way that would produce more MPs for their coalition than they might ordinarily get according to the nationwide party vote.
Should enough voters follow through, this would produce an “overhang” of extra MPs, which could be crucial in forming a parliamentary majority.
This phenomenon could also see National lose a string of senior figures including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Defence Minister Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee, even if it is returned to office.
New Zealand uses a proportional representation for its electoral system, which typically means the election is decided by the nationwide party vote, and a count shows a winner much faster than Australian elections.
However, should there be an overhang, the focus should shift to the results in individual electorates, making it tougher to call.
In the event of a very close outcome, it could also come down to the “special votes”, including overseas and out-of-electorate votes, which will not be added to the tally until November 27.
The 2026 election is a rerun of the 2023 election, the first “Battle of the Chrises”, a victory for Luxon.
The former Air New Zealand chief executive and National Party leader has struggled to win over Kiwis since seizing office, facing two leadership challenges in recent months.
The alternative for the country’s top job, Hipkins, was prime minister for nine months in 2023 following Jacinda Ardern’s resignation.
Neither have excited the electorate, leading to a record combined vote for minor parties, according to recent polls. The Greens, ACT and Opportunity are on track to record their best results.
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