A leading auctioneer has revealed a repeal of investor tax rule changes by the Albanese government could add 10 per cent to Melbourne home values “overnight”.
Melbourne’s already struggling auction market has limped through the threat of an interest rate hike as soon as next Tuesday with barely a few hundred sales.
It comes as the chief auctioneer of the state’s biggest real estate firm has estimated repealing a series of Albanese government May budget changes to property investor tax settings would add 10 per cent to the value of most auctions overnight.
Realestate.com.au auction data yesterday showed there was a 53.4 per cent clearance rate, about 203 sales, from 380 results on a subdued weekend ahead of the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.
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Recent weeks suggest it will revise down by a few per cent in the coming days as more results are received.
But with the Reserve Bank also expected to stop the nation’s home loan holders with an interest-rate hike next week, market watchers have insisted it is prices that are more likely to suffer than sales numbers.
Realestate.com.au chief economist Angus Moore said a clearance rate that has been stable in the 50 per cent range through most weeks since March, despite four interest-rate hikes.
As a result he said it wasn’t surprising to see yesterday’s clearance rate had held up in similar fashion despite wide expectations of a further rise on Tuesday.
Mr Moore said that despite this, he was still anticipating price falls to continue for Melbourne in the near term.
88 Through Rd, Camberwell, was this week’s highest reported auction sale at $2.888m.
102 Falconer St, Fitzroy North, was the next priciest with a $2.15m result.
Ray White’s Luke Banitsiotis said the Albanese government’s May budget was likely having a bigger impact than the RBA on Melbourne’s auction market.
“If they reversed that we would get a 10 per cent increase in prices overnight,” Mr Banitsiotis said.
“Investors would come back, and that’s what is missing at the moment. But for now it will find a level and stay there.”
For an about $960,000 median priced house in Melbourne, it would work out to $96,000.
Real Estate Institute of Victoria chief executive Toby Balasz said with confidence an issue “across the board” changes to auction regulations would also be a reason behind “subdued levels of auctions taking place”.
“It’s looking like a challenging spring,” Mr Balasz said.
The REIV boss said a preliminary clearance rate at current levels, while likely to decline as further results were reported, was a reasonable result in the circumstances.
“But sub-60 per cent … is below where it should be, particularly in spring,” Mr Balasz said.
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