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Traders weigh cash rate above 5pc after RBA’s warning shot

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) •
October 22, 2026 • 05:00 AM
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There is an almost two-in-three chance the RBA will raise rates on Melbourne Cup Day, but money markets are starting to price in even higher borrowing costs.

Traders weigh cash rate above 5pc after RBA’s warning shot

Financial markets are starting to price in the possibility that interest rates in Australia will climb above 5 per cent early in the new year after the central bank fired a warning shot on inflation this week.

The Australian dollar climbed to a three-week high of US70.28¢ on Thursday, having soared 1 per cent in just four days, while three-year bond yields jumped 10 basis points to 4.94 per cent, as the market rapidly repriced its rate expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy meeting.

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