Topic: State and Territory Elections
Liberal leader Jess Wilson is ahead in the polls as the days count down to November 28. ( ABC News )
Victoria's election campaign is lacking big, stand-out moments, or generation-defining policies, but it is following the traditional rhythm of media buses, dumped candidates and awkward photo opportunities.
Today, a sea of red and blue T-shirt-wearing party faithful will engage in some good old-fashioned rah-rah at duelling official campaign launches.
The level of enthusiasm at each event will probably give a good indication of where this election is heading — it's likely to be a lot more upbeat at Liberal HQ, given the election is now Jess Wilson's to lose.
Both sides argue this election is the most consequential in the state's history. But are they offering the game-changing policies to match?
Insiders say Labor's campaign is becoming increasingly desperate. ( ABC News: Harrison Tippet )
The Coalition warn another four years will truly wreck the state, particularly financially and on crime.
Labor's scare is that the Coalition will work hand-in-glove with One Nation. Expect Labor's campaign to get even more negative in the final two weeks.
Crime stands out as a major issue for voters. Victoria's crime rate has risen over the past four years. Violent crimes feature prominently on TV news and have become a staple on social media.
The Coalition has banged the law-and-order drum — and under Ben Carroll, Labor has danced to the same beat.
The horrific stabbing death of HungryPanda worker Feng Jianming last weekend has reopened a discussion in some circles about factors contributing to crime: untreated or poorly managed mental health.
Feng Jianming was fatally stabbed near Queen Victoria Market while carrying out a delivery run earlier this month. ( Melbourne Chinatown Business Association )
Roberto Urbano is alleged to have fatally stabbed Mr Jianming after he and another rider found him tampering with their bikes near the Queen Victoria Market. A Melbourne court heard Mr Urbano has schizophrenia, and his lawyer requested a nurse assess him in custody.
Psychiatrist and former Australian of the Year Pat McGorry has linked a rise in violent crimes against strangers and the deterioration of mental health services in Victoria.
Chair of the expert advisory committee for Victoria's historic mental health royal commission, McGorry has lamented the fact that many of the commission's recommendations have not been fulfilled, or watered down by government.
As a result, he says, the system has continued to fail.
"There's a real risk out there in the Victorian community right now because only about half of the people with serious mental illness are covered by this state mental health system, which was supposed to be transformed but has not been,'' McGorry said.
A recent study by a consultant forensic psychiatrist suggests 43 of an estimated 126 homicides in Victoria in 2024 and 2025 — about one in three — were committed by people with psychosis — a significant increase from a decade ago, when one in 10 homicides a year were perpetrated by people with psychotic disorders.
It's a staggering piece of research. But McGorry and others stress that the vast majority of people with a psychotic illness are more likely to be victims than perpetrators and it's important not to stigmatise people dealing with mental illness — the vast majority are not dangerous.
With the election in just two weeks, McGorry said it would be good if political leaders addressed "the actual drivers in the increase of crime, and one of them is treatment of mental illness".
"If you are really serious about tackling crime you need to get serious about treating mental health," he said.
Delivering major investment and reforms in the complex mental health system is hard to explain and expensive, making it a difficult sell on the campaign trail in an election where cost-of-living is front of voters' minds.
Both Labor and the Coalition have crime prevention strategies, but it gets lost in the race to be toughest. Whoever wins the election is likely going to have to spend hundreds of millions extra on prisons and prison staff .
For its part, the Coalition is promising an audit of the mental health royal commission's recommendations should it win, and an audit of whether the $1.2 billion collected via the mental health levy is being spent on services.
The opposition is also promising to provide more mental health services.
The government says it has been working hard to implement the recommendations. It's also promised nurse-to-patient ratios for mental health wards.
It says plans to keep violent people out of hospitals form part of its mental health offering, along with $15.8 million to deliver supported housing for adults living with mental illness, plus a new mental health local facility in Wendouree and Ararat.
The latter announcement is important for that community, but also happens to be in seats Labor is fighting tooth and nail to hold onto. As the election inches closer, that task is getting increasingly more difficult.
Wilson has successfully ridden a wave of anti-Labor sentiment that has been brewing for years.
She's presented herself as a genuine alternative option as after years of internal division, the Liberals have their house (mostly) in order.
The Coalition bristles at the suggestion it doesn't have a big policy suite — there is a swag of policies on crime, budget repair and debt ( economists have criticised how achievable these are ) and roads.
But the campaign is overwhelmingly focused on Labor's 12 years in office and highlighting how things aren't as they should be. Case in point being Victoria's potholed roads.
Labor is now entering a stage of the campaign that insiders say is increasingly desperate.
As a royal commission combs through the party's track record in office, Labor is throwing money at everything, particularly roads and rail. It even doubled its own announcement on free dental.
Everything the parties do is designed to tap into voters needs and wants, often informed by data and research.
McGorry doesn't necessarily blame politicians for the lack of mental health focus. He says for the most part they understand the challenges.
But the public, and therefore the media, don't always prioritise it.
"The public need to make it clear to their representatives that this is an issue they care about, with cancer they have made it clear and that's why we have world class-cancer facilities," McGorry says.
