First published 14 Nov 2026, 5:30am
Terry Ryder’s property thermometer shows how much the market has cooled
Brisbane is now the epicentre of a national property freeze, with a dramatic plunge in buyer demand wiping out 87 per cent of the city’s hottest suburbs in just 12 months.
An exclusive new report measuring live buyer momentum has revealed the true toll of the market slide, as unsold homes pile up and sales volumes crash.
Hotspotting’s National Thermometer Index scores market heat out of 100 based on how fast homes are selling in every suburb compared to how many are hitting the market.
Mr Ryder said Brisbane has the biggest fall of any capital city
The report found the national average score had dropped from 56.0 to 49.1, marking a decisive shift away from a frantic sellers’ market to one where buyers overwhelmingly hold the cards.
Greater Brisbane took the biggest hit, plunging 13.7 points to a score of 53.5. While the city had 206 red-hot sellers’ markets a year ago, today just 27 remain.
“Previously high-flying Brisbane has had the biggest fall of any capital city,” Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said.
“The pace of cooling is the fastest of any capital.”.
Property listings have surged 50 per cent across the city
Active property listings surged 50 per cent across the city year-on-year, while quarterly sales fell 11 per cent.
Hotspotting managing director Tim Graham said Brisbane was being battered by a severe drop in buyer confidence.
“At the moment we’ve had the mother of all storms really,” Mr Graham said.
“We’ve had global political issues, we’ve got the five interest rate rises this year, and we’ve got the budget on top of that.”
Mr Graham said the surge in property listings was driven by household budget pressures and a desire to cash out at the top of the market.
Hotspotting director Tim Graham: ‘Mother of all storms’
“I think at the moment what we’re seeing is that we’ve got a lot of people starting to feel the pinch in terms of the higher interest rate environment,” he said.
“In places like WA and Brisbane that have had significant growth over the last five years or more, [sellers have] started to want to see some of the results of that and want to cash in on the growth they’ve had, or offset some debt at home.”
The national chill is expected to deepen following the Reserve Bank’s fifth rate increase for the year in November.
Realestate.com.au senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the latest hike to 4.85 per cent would reinforce the downturn, with Brisbane homes now taking almost twice as long to sell as they were six months ago.
“Higher borrowing costs are now limiting what prospective buyers can borrow and afford to pay, contributing to weaker demand, with more choice and greater negotiating power adding to the downward pressure on prices,” Ms Creagh said.
With power shifting back to buyers and stock piling up, house hunters were using their new leverage to prioritise postcode over perfection.
A Place Advisory survey of more than 900 buyers revealed 38 per cent now ranked location as their top priority, with 35 per cent willing to buy an unrenovated property just to secure the right street.
Realestate.com.au senior economist Eleanor Creagh: Downward pressure on price
“Brisbane is going through a significant market correction,” Place One Group managing director Paul Curtain said.
“For buyers, softer conditions could offer a window to revisit homes or suburbs they previously thought were out of reach. Some buyers would rather secure the location and improve the home over time.”
Meanwhile, a resilient pocket of 77 Queensland suburbs bucked the downward trend, led by priced-out buyers swarming to affordable markets across the outer-suburban band.
Place One Group director Paul Curtain said buyers were prioritising location
Mr Graham said units had become the ultimate property play in the current economy, calling it a “win-win-win scenario” for affordability, rental yields, and capital growth.
Shailer Park units in Logan led the state with a top heat score of 83 and a median price of $697,000, with units in Boondall ($870,000) and Tingalpa ($865,000) also still attracting intense competition.
Ray White AKG group CEO Avi Khan said these competitive markets were now heavily skewed toward buyers with existing equity.
Outer metro unit markets were still going strong
He said first-home buyers, typically the lifeblood of the affordable unit and townhouse market, were “disappearing quicker than anyone” due to the borrowing squeeze.
“The only buyers with real momentum right now are people who already own a home,” Mr Khan said, noting demand in Shailer Park was driven by upgraders seeking larger blocks.
“We’ve built a market that rewards people who got in early and punishes people who didn’t. If you’re 28 and renting, the system isn’t broken for you. It’s working exactly as designed, just not in your favour.”
Ray White AKG group CEO Avi Khan said first-home buyer activity had dropped off
For those still trying to break into the market, Mr Khan advised looking just outside the frenzy, noting that the 50 per cent surge in overall city listings offered a rare loophole.
“The opportunity is in the slightly dearer bracket,” Mr Khan said.
“If a buyer can stretch even slightly above the affordable band, they move from the most competitive part of the market to the least competitive part of it, and that is where the value is right now.”
Regional Queensland followed the capital’s lead, with active listings up 26 per cent.
Former darling Townsville was cooling fast, with 19 of its 34 tracked markets losing heat over the past quarter.
Regional Queensland was also hard hit by the affordability crunch
Among them were houses in Bushland Beach, Aitkenvale, North Ward and Pimlico, while three markets bucked the trend: Rangewood and Alligator Creek houses, and Kirwan units.
In Cairns, the data also shows former hot spots cooling, while Redlynch units ($562,000 and Kanimbla houses ($869,000) are on the rise.
On the Gold Coast, unit markets in Main Beach ($1.65m) and Surfers Paradise ($865,000) dropped into the buyer-friendly Cold and Cool zones, along with houses in Currumbin Valley and Hope Island. Affordable units in Varsity Lakes and Merrimac remained competitive.
A market’s trajectory was a better indicator than its median price, analysts said
Developer slashes prices by $250k in teen surf stars’ tower
Why Ellidy Pullin still carries an ‘infectious zest for life’
Meanwhile, the pandemic sea-change capital of Noosa plummeted into the Cool band, with houses in Noosaville and Sunrise Beach now ranked as Cold.
Mr Graham warned buyers against simply chasing median prices, noting a market’s trajectory was a better indicator.
“You want to be buying on the way up,” Mr Graham said.
“You want to be buying in a market that is starting to warm, not one that’s starting to cool.”
It is a strategy echoed by Australian Property Scout founder Sam Gordon, who is using the broader market cooldown to his advantage.
Australian Property Scout director Sam Gordon: Don’t buy with emotion
Mr Gordon said he was capitalising on lower competition to buy aggressively in regional pockets where rental supply remained tight.
“If you’ve got the ability to buy before the end of 2026, I would be buying before the end of 2026,” Mr Gordon said.
While he expects the broader national market to finally bottom out by mid-2027, Mr Gordon warned that buyers who sat on the sidelines waiting for a sure thing would miss out on double-digit growth in these tight micro-markets over the next 12 months.
“Don’t go and buy with emotion,” he said. “Buy with numbers.”
Help us improve your reading experience
Got a minute? Your feedback will help us build a better experience for you.
