A critical blockade against some of nature’s coldest air has temporarily broken down—and much earlier in the year than normal. Disruptions in this circulation, known as the polar vortex, often push intensely cold air out of the Arctic toward lower latitudes.
Experts still aren’t entirely sure how the current collapse will play out in our everyday weather. But it’s another sign that we may be in for a wild ride over the weeks and months to come.
The polar vortex is a band of upper-level winds wrapping around the Arctic Circle like a dam. This circulation is usually strong and stable, helping to keep the season’s coldest air locked near the North Pole. But the winds occasionally weaken or even reverse course, which can set off an atmospheric chain reaction, allowing bitterly cold air to spill southward.
The manner in which the polar vortex breaks down determines what kind of weather conditions we might expect. Upper-level winds dipping southward in troughs are responsible for brief spells of cold temperatures. These “lobes” of the polar vortex, as they’re known, are relatively common in a typical winter.
Sometimes, this circulation can splinter into smaller pieces. If the vortex were a flowing river, these fragments are like leaves stuck on the riverbank, forcing extremely cold air to linger over the same areas for days or weeks at a time.
One such case made this phenomenon a household name. A highly disrupted polar vortex in early 2015 sent a weeks-long burst of cold air sweeping over the eastern US. Chicago recorded its coldest February in nearly 140 years. In Lexington, Kentucky, temperatures bottomed out at –18 degrees Fahrenheit, as subfreezing air dove all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.
Seeing a breakdown of the polar vortex this early in the season is unprecedented in the historical record. Disruptions of this extent typically don’t occur until the latter half of winter. Based on the latest data, the circulation’s reversal began on Tuesday, and computer model guidance expects it to last through Thursday.
Weather patterns take a few weeks to respond to a polar vortex disruption, if at all. Given that reliable forecasts only extend about 10 days into the future, we can’t know where in the northern hemisphere cold air from the Arctic may spill.
While experts are still debating the exact causes driving this polar vortex breakdown, the event throws another wrench into a cool season already dominated by another unprecedented event: the strongest El Niño on record.
Historically warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have already significantly affected conditions around the world, and this influence will only grow heading into the winter months.
Much of North America can expect warmer-than-normal conditions during a winter dominated by a strong El Niño. But every event is different, and now with a sudden disruption in the polar vortex, those forecasts are less certain, because unexpected things can happen when unprecedented phenomena overlap.
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