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Of all the problems facing the NSW Liberals four months out from an election which could, if polls are to be believed, see them relegated to the third-largest party in the parliament, the preselection of one of their stand-out performers, shadow treasurer Scott Farlow, should not be one of them.
And yet, after nominations for the upper house close at midnight on Wednesday, Farlow will indeed be staring down an intra-factional competitor in Parramatta councillor Martin Zaiter and, potentially, a slew of other would-be MPs.
As the Herald has previously reported, Farlow has shifted positions on the Liberal upper house ticket in the lead up to the March election.
While the ins and outs don’t really bear getting into, suffice it to say that in a challenging electoral environment, the move was designed to ensure one of the most senior Liberals is there come March next year.
Farlow will still fancy his chances of winning. But, instead of being free to focus on, for example, having the Liberals’ election commitments costed by the NSW Parliamentary Budget Office or, god forbid, campaigning against the Labor government, his attention will undoubtedly be drawn to making sure he’s still got a spot on the ticket.
This is not a sledge on Zaiter personally. Farlow’s move into the north-west metro zone of the Liberals’ upper house ticket has disrupted his own long-standing plans to run for the spot. But it is a timely example of a type of bloody-minded factional bloodletting that paints a picture of where things are at.
While on the one hand MPs are clogging the doorways on their way to give valedictory speeches this week (and talk is rife of more to come), on the other – sections of the Liberals seem to be addicted to cutting off their nose to spite their face.
I cannot tell you how many times, over the past few months, Labor people have said they feel sorry for Kellie Sloane. That is not a good place for an opposition to be. Last Friday, Sloane gave a speech at the Bradfield Oration in which she spoke about her desire to be “a premier who plans and builds for the next generation” as she announced plans to help finance a new generation of metro lines.
“I lead a Liberal team with a proud record of building,” she said. “And we have the ambition to build again. To deliver for NSW.”
A few hours later, Jordan Lane, a first-term MP in the state’s most marginal seat of Ryde, announced in a twee post on Instagram that he was quitting, taking most of his colleagues by complete surprise. Like, honestly.
It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly how this term went so wrong for the Liberals in NSW.
The party’s broader disintegration since 2025 has played a role, but it doesn’t explain everything; polls in Victoria suggest opposition leader Jess Wilson is poised to win the election in that state later this month. In Queensland David Crisafulli’s Liberal government remains significantly more popular than either the Labor opposition or One Nation.
There are differences, obviously. The Liberals in Victoria are facing off against a tired and deeply unpopular Labor government. Crisafulli is still in his first term. In NSW, the Minns government is unburdened by the barnacles that Labor carries either in Victoria or federally.
Yet, it is still shocking that a party that held government for 12 years – and was not badly beaten in 2023 – is teetering dangerously close to irrelevance at the close of four years in opposition.
There have been many low points. Former MP Rory Amon was arrested and charged over the alleged rape and indecent assault of a 13-year-old boy. He’s currently facing a retrial. There was the failure to lodge local government nominations before deadline in 2024, a monumental administrative bungle that will cost the party $2 million . And, of course, the long-running Operation Rosny ICAC inquiry, which laid bare the influence of lobbyists and property developers over sections of the Liberal hierarchy.
None of that explains everything, though. Rather, Liberal staffers, MPs and officials often describe a party that has felt trapped in a kind of permafrost since 2023, drifting aimlessly through a term in opposition in which it has largely failed to define itself and what it stands for or against.
When the party switched leader, from the inoffensive and ineffective Mark Speakman to Sloane in November last year, it was supposed to kick them into gear.
Yet the Bondi massacre and One Nation’s subsequent explosion in the polls caught them flat-footed and unable to impose themselves on the public conversation. It is notable that the Liberals heading for the exits include MPs who were influential in convincing a reluctant Sloane to stand in the first place.
What else can she do but put a brave face on it? The day before Lane announced he was going, Sloane was asked whether she expected any further resignations. “Look, you know, there could be more change. I’m not sure,” she said.
“We’ve got an energised team that’s pretty excited about the election next March because we know we’re in with a chance.”
The reality is most Liberals now accept privately their only real chance of forming government next term is with some form of supply agreement with One Nation. That’s treacherous water to be in, to say the least.
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