Israel’s new Knesset will be sworn in on Tuesday, giving opposition politicians their first chance to take control of some levers of power, even as they struggle to form a new government to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu .
High on the agenda will be replacing the speaker, who wields immense influence by controlling the legislature’s agenda. The role is currently held by Amir Ohana, a close ally of Netanyahu.
Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israeli military chief who got the presidential mandate to try to form a coalition government at the weekend , may take the role himself, Israeli media reported on Monday.
The effort to wrest away control of the Knesset is significant enough that more than 160 top former security officials, including heads of the military, intelligence and police, warned that rightwing activists were planning to disrupt the day with violent attacks.
“Actors who oppose replacing the Knesset speaker intend to go to the Knesset on the day of the swearing-in ceremony and to prevent the MKs and their family members from entering the building,” a forum of retired commanders, the Democracy’s Protective Wall, warned in a letter to serving security chiefs.
“These same actors are encouraging tens of thousands of citizens who support their stance to come and to help them with their mission,” Ma’ariv newspaper quoted the letter saying.
If Eisenkot does not take the speaker role, opposition parties have agreed that someone from his Yashar party will be the nominee.
The opposition parties hold 67 seats in the 120-seat legislature, enough to install a consensus choice for speaker. All have described the current prime minister as a threat to the state and are keen to start moving against him, despite divides blocking the formation of a coalition.
But several of the Jewish-Israeli opposition parties in his “change” bloc have sworn not to sit with the Palestinian-led parties that hold over a quarter of the bloc’s seats, or even join a minority government that has their backing.
Eisenkot has vowed to broker a national emergency government, promising to achieve it with “creative and unconventional political acts”.
In a sign of challenges ahead, he effectively warned that some election promises would have to be broken to unseat Netanyahu.
“No one will be able to fulfil all the [campaign] promises they made, and all of us will need to compromise. That is also leadership, to know when to decide and set priorities,” he said.
There have been protests across Israel urging Jewish-Israeli opposition parties to put unseating Netanyahu ahead of a racist commitment to excluding Palestinian-led parties from government.
Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about 20% of Israel’s population and voted in unprecedented numbers this year, giving them 19 seats. Without them, the opposition bloc has fewer seats than Netanyahu’s diminished coalition.
Rightwing opposition leader Avigdor Lieberman has been trying to seek an alternative path to government through an alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties. They have long been Netanyahu allies but have been frustrated by his failure to deliver on the promise to pass broad military draft exemptions for their community into law. Lieberman has campaigned hard for universal conscription, but appears to prefer compromise on this issue to working with Palestinians.
“Has the End of Times arrived?” leading Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) journalist Arye Erlich wrote in a column for Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.
“Has Avigdor Lieberman … the biggest persecutor of Haredim Israeli politics has seen in decades, suddenly come to believe that he can compromise on a military draft bill and sit in a coalition government alongside the Haredim?”
Even if Eisenkot does broker a coalition deal, he may delay announcing it until Netanyahu’s speaker has been replaced. Netanyahu is a master of political survival and last-minute deals, fracturing past coalitions by luring defectors into his own alliance.
Ohana could delay signing in a new government for up to a week, and some of the opposition do not want to give Netanyahu that much time to attack the pressure points of any fragile deal.
If Eisenkot cannot form a government, the mandate is passed to other leaders and if they too fail Israel must hold elections again. In the meantime Netanyahu and his far-right allies would stay on as a caretaker government.
Although Netanyahu is calling for his opponents to join him in a unity government, a long period of limbo followed by a new vote offers him a likelier path back to power.
If an alternative government takes power, it will be harder for Netanyahu to destabilise it, said Gideon Rahat, chair in political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“Once they establish a government, they might be a minority government, it might be hard for them to do things, but nevertheless, they will be governing and it would be hard to oust them.”
