Surfers call it the washing machine. When a giant wave throws you off your board and plunges you underwater, you lose all sense of where you are. That is what befell Donald Trump and his party on November 3rd, as they were slammed by tens of millions of American voters. They have still to grasp just how much their country has changed.
Already it is clear this was not a normal midterm swing against a sitting president, but the biggest wave-election since the aftermath of Watergate more than 50 years ago. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, flipping seats deep into once-safe red waters, from South Carolina to Texas.
The coming days will spell out two further lessons. One is that this is not just a triumph for Democrats, but also for American democracy. Voters cannot be taken for granted. If they are angry, they will turn against parties they have long supported. The other lesson, which follows from this, is that both parties now need to find a new way of doing politics—one that spends less time riling up their constituents and more getting things done on their behalf.
The wave has swept across America. Kansas has its first Democratic senator since the New Deal. In Texas Democrats won their first Senate seat in almost 40 years and kicked out a three-term governor.
It turns out that voters do not much like a president who is elected on a promise to lower prices and stay out of wars, but who then goes on to launch a tariff crusade and attack Iran— thereby driving up prices . And they hate it if that president’s relentless self-glorification and enrichment of his family and friends mocks their own hardship. In Trump’s America, Gallup finds, nine in ten adults complain that corruption in their government is widespread—about as many as in Nigeria.
The vote was thus a verdict on the president. But politicians from both parties should also reflect on voters’ rejection of the ugly mechanics of modern partisanship. Republicans gerrymandered seats, but failed to make gains. Elon Musk, a multi-billionaire, poured more than $US150 million ($217 million) into a race in Texas , but his candidate was trounced. Republican candidates stoked fears over Muslims and transgender people, and lost. One in Ohio backed an ad in which a mother damned his opponent: her own abused daughter. It sealed his defeat.
The message from this is clear and it is hopeful. It has often seemed as if polarisation was stronger than the electoral feedback that ensures democratic accountability. Not this time. Voters demanded that politicians put the nation’s prosperity above the grubby pursuit of power. Just before the election, polls say, 80 per cent of Americans called for “substantial change” or “complete and total upheaval” in how America is run.
Voters have done their job. Politicians must now do theirs. The immediate task falls to the Republicans. When Trump took control of the party, he ditched its values. Most old-guard Republican politicians were either forced out of office or traded their principles for political survival. With their call for change, voters have given Republicans a second chance. Some may stick with the president, risking further drubbings in future elections. Braver souls will breathe new life into their party, even if that courts Trump’s vengeance. He is more feared than loved. They may discover that, once the old king’s power begins to ebb, it drains away surprisingly fast.
Plenty could go wrong—including with Democrats flushed by success. Their party is only a bit more popular than Trump. Their campaign succeeded by pairing a promise to lower costs with one to crack down on corruption and incompetence. Both are vital, but the balance will be hard to strike.
If Democrats ignore the rot, they will only deepen voters’ cynicism and despair at the federal government in Washington. But if subpoenas and impeachments consume all of their efforts and they fail to improve people’s lives, voters will feel that they have been hoodwinked once again. A running fight with the administration will also make it harder to pass legislation that would, say, restore funding for health care.
Above it all will loom the legacy-obsessed figure of Trump. Some hold out hope that he will spend the rest of his presidency pottering about the White House, gilding golf balls and opining on granite. That underestimates the president’s capacity, for good and ill.
At home Trump may focus on pardoning his friends and punishing his enemies. With only two years left, he and his cronies and ideologues may try to wring what more they can from their time in power, be that through lucrative state-supported mining ventures or more deportations.
The president also retains enormous authority over foreign policy. He may yet pursue further strikes on Iran, try to bully Ukraine into a bad deal with Russia, or invade Cuba. As the White House’s more talented staff eye the exits, a depleted executive branch may find itself even more subject to the president’s whims. It will be ill-prepared for a crisis.
There is a glimmer of a possibility, however, that politicians will take their responsibility seriously. Republicans in Congress may consider working with Democrats, and vice versa (imagine that). They could pursue egregious corruption or even impeach the administration’s most reckless cabinet members, including Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war. They could develop rules for artificial intelligence that guard against disastrous outcomes without crippling innovation.
Trump is not a man who enjoys being left out. He may judge that he could improve his legacy by working with Congress, rather than trampling on it. That is not the likeliest scenario, we admit. But, as the voters have shown, politicians who ignore them risk ending up in very deep water.
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