Polls show no coalition is expected to secure a majority of seats, in one of the closest elections in recent history
New Zealand heads for election cliffhanger with minor party cast as kingmaker
In New Zealand’s bellwether seat, what are locals thinking as a knife-edge poll looms?
Six weeks of campaigning, politicking and debates is done. New Zealand has voted and over the next few hours we’ll find out the results of what has been cast as one of the tightest elections in recent memory.
For weeks, the polls have shown no clear path to government for any potential coalition, left or right. Seemingly unimpressed by National and Labour , polls have tracked voters turning to the smaller parties, such as the centrist Opportunity party.
Tonight could see Opportunity potentially end up as kingmaker, unless that pre-election support and hype has failed to translate into votes. Stay with us as we learn the answer to that big question and others, as we keep you across the counts and results as they come in. It’s going to be an exciting night!
Another update here with 8% of the vote counted . National on 31.2%, Labour 28.4%, the Greens 12.9%, Act 11.2%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.7% and Te Pāti Māori 0.4%.
On these numbers, we would have a right bloc coalition back in power. Long way to go .
Jamie Tahana has this from the Backbencher pub in Wellington:
At the Backbencher, a politics and puppet themed pub across the road from the Beehive, people are splitting their attention between the election coverage, the football, the cricket, and tonight’s rugby league.
Many people spoken to by the Guardian weren’t prepared to go bold with a prediction, nervous about the likely tight result. One man, Joel, told the Guardian Opportunity making parliament would “shake things up.”
Also here is NZ First local candidate and former Wellington mayor Andy Foster, and his team. Foster said he was nervous.
“Let’s get through tonight, but I’m feeling confident,” he told the Guardian. “The country needs NZ First and we still have a lot to do,” he said.
Some colour from voting stations around the country today.
The Labour party election night event has kicked off in the Upper Hutt Cosmopolitan Club, a popular suburban venue in the middle of Labour party leader Chris Hipkins ’ Remutaka electorate, which he’s held since 2008.
As Te Awa Kairangi (the Hutt River) flows by a few sleepy streets away, the Cossie Club has begun to fill with party supporters and volunteers, many who are travelling to this small city in the Wellington region by bus. At first stride into this red-hued room, festooned with fairy lights and balloons, it’s difficult to know if you’ve walked into a political event or a 21st party.
Politicians expected here tonight include Ginny Anderson, Labour’s candidate for the Hutt South electorate; Barbara Edmonds, standing for Mana; and Ayesha Verrall, who is contesting Wellington North against incumbent Green party MP Tamatha Paul.
Hipkins (whose nickname is Chippy) said his family tradition is fish and chips on election night as the votes are counted, so he is expected here later.
Hutt South, Nelson, Banks Peninsula, Wigram, Whanganui and Kāpiti were either tight races between National and Labour last time around, or could change hands after boundaries were re-drawn.
Wairarapa, West Coast-Tasman and Hamilton East are historically National strongholds. If they flip red, that could be an early signal for good overall outcome for Labour.
The Tāmaki electorate has traditionally been held by National but was taken by the libertarian Act party in 2023. This year, the race between those parties’ candidates and newcomer Labour candidate Max Harris is tight – a Harris win would be a surprise upset for the right.
Meanwhile, Green candidate Kahurangi Carter is vying to claim Christchurch Central . If Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick keeps Auckland Central and Tamatha Paul nabs Wellington North, New Zealand’s three largest city centre electorates will be represented by the Green party.
Maungakiekie could also be an indicator for the final results. Over the past two elections, the Maungakiekie electorate has proven to be an “extraordinary” bellwether seat, accurately reflecting the mood of the nation.
If six weeks of campaigning has left you cold, then sit back as Matilda Boseley spills the tea on the two Chrises, election vibes and the Luxon-Opportunity question.
Seeing some numbers. So with just 1% of the vote counted, National are on 31%, Labour 29.8% and Opportunity party 5.7% , so they are above the threshold. There is obviously a long, long way to go tonight. The Greens are on 12.2%, Act 11% and New Zealand First 9.4%. Te Pāti Māori are on 0.3% .
So, what’s at stake for Luxon and National tonight? A lot. The party is facing the dire possibility of being the first one-term National-led government since it was founded in 1936. Remember, National has never led for less than three terms, ever . So this is a huge night for Luxon’s legacy and the National party, both past and present.
Tonight, our New Zealand correspondent Eva Corlett is posted at National party’s main gathering at Viaduct Events Centre, in Auckland, awaiting the arrival of Christopher Luxon .
In Upper Hutt, north of Wellington, we’ll have updates from Michelle Duff who is mingling alongside the Labour faithful at the local Cosmopolitan Club. That’s happening in Chris Hipkins ’ electorate, and he’ll show up there once the lay of the electoral land becomes clear.
In Wellington, Jamie Tahana is at the Backbenchers pub, which is a brief stroll from New Zealand’s Beehive. He’ll be checking the mood with keen voters who have pulled up a pew and are ready to watch the results start coming in.
Six weeks of campaigning, politicking and debates is done. New Zealand has voted and over the next few hours we’ll find out the results of what has been cast as one of the tightest elections in recent memory.
For weeks, the polls have shown no clear path to government for any potential coalition, left or right. Seemingly unimpressed by National and Labour , polls have tracked voters turning to the smaller parties, such as the centrist Opportunity party.
Tonight could see Opportunity potentially end up as kingmaker, unless that pre-election support and hype has failed to translate into votes. Stay with us as we learn the answer to that big question and others, as we keep you across the counts and results as they come in. It’s going to be an exciting night!
