Trending
Prev Story
Next Story

Live updates: A top election forecaster moves Ohio governor’s race from ‘tossup’ to ‘leans Democratic’ | CNN Politics

CNN International •
October 22, 2026 • 12:07 PM
• By Jennifer Agiesta, Lauren Fox, Patrick Svitek, Deva Lee, Stephen Collinson, Gloria Pazmino, Kaanita Iyer, Kit Maher, Ariel Edwards-Levy
1
1 reads 0 reactions

A top election forecaster is now describing the Ohio governor’s race as favorable to Democrats after previously predicting it to be a “tossup.” Follow for live updates.

Live updates: A top election forecaster moves Ohio governor’s race from ‘tossup’ to ‘leans Democratic’ | CNN Politics

• Governor’s race rocked: Amid the controversy over Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign ad featuring his opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother, a top election forecaster is now describing the race as favorable to Democrats after previously predicting it to be a “tossup.” For months, the battle to lead Ohio has been one of the more contentious contests on the national radar.

• Democrat’s comeback attempt: Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Husted in two new polls, and Ohio is No. 2 on CNN’s latest ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip.

• Trump’s trail blitz: President Donald Trump’s latest red-state stop is in Iowa — which he won by double digits in 2024 — where he will rally tonight for Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, who has broken with him on Iran. A CNN Poll of Polls indicates a razor thin Senate race in Iowa .

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a potential 2028 presidential candidate and the head of the Democratic Governors Association, is closing out his midterm travels with an eight-state tour that will reach into deep-red territory.

From Thursday through November 2, Beshear will visit Nevada, New Mexico, Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma, according to a spokesperson who first shared the details with CNN. He’ll campaign for gubernatorial candidates including Amy Acton in Ohio , who is under the national spotlight after her Republican opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy, launched an ad featuring her estranged mother.

Beshear’s decision to spend the last day before the election in Kansas and Oklahoma may be the most notable. President Donald Trump won both states by double digits in 2024, and neither is a sure bet for Democrats in the governor’s races.

While Democrat Laura Kelly currently holds Kansas governor’s office, the party is in a tough race to retain it with her leaving office due to term limits. Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher faces Republican Ty Masterson, president of the state Senate.

Trump won Oklahoma by 34 points, but Democrats have grown more hopeful about the state in recent days. The DGA announced Tuesday it would spend $500,000 there, looking to help Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson defeat Republican former state Sen. Mike Mazzei. They are vying to succeed outgoing GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt.

A South Carolina rally was continuously disrupted by protesters as President Donald Trump tried to shore up support for Republicans ahead of the midterms. CNN’s Alayna Treene reports:

A North Carolina rally was continuously disrupted by protesters as President Donald Trump tried to shore up support for Republicans ahead of the midterms. CNN's Alayna Treene reports.

A political ad from Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy featuring opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar has drawn even more attention to one of the most competitive governor’s races in the country.

Acton is battling Ramaswamy to become the state’s first elected female governor and first Democratic governor elected in two decades.

“It’s hard. It is the big elephant in the room, isn’t it?” Acton said Wednesday. “My brother and I had a mom who struggled, and we experienced a lot of neglect and abuse.”

The ad has sent shockwaves through the state and once again directed focus back to Acton’s childhood, which she has talked about openly in the gubernatorial race and during her time as the state’s health director.

Acton’s campaign for governor has come under the spotlight in recent days because of the ad. But for months, the battle between her and Ramaswamy to lead the seventh-largest state has been one of the nastier contests under the national radar.

Even before the ad featuring Acton’s mom, the race had become filled with brutal attack ads targeting her. Ohio voters say they’re turned off by ads from both sides.

Read more about the race and Acton’s record.

Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted in the critical Senate race in Ohio, while there is no clear leader in the Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, according to new polling from Fox News and CNN’s Poll of Polls averages on these races.

According to the average, Brown leads Husted 49% to 44% across recent high-quality polling of likely voters in Ohio. Brown held a lead outside of the margin of error in 4 of the 5 included surveys on the race.

In Texas, Talarico averages 49% support to Paxton’s 47% in high-quality polling. Polling on that race largely shows no clear leader.

The new Fox News poll finds a tied contest there.

In Ohio’s fiercely contested gubernatorial race, Democrat Amy Acton holds an edge over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, according to the CNN Poll of Polls; Acton averages 50% support to Ramaswamy’s 44%. All polls included in the current average were completed before news about an ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother became public.

Former Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci, a Republican, urged Vivek Ramaswamy today to “pivot … quickly” as the state’s GOP gubernatorial candidate faces backlash over an ad attacking his opponent.

Earlier this week, Ramaswamy’s campaign released an ad featuring his opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother, who called her a liar and urged voters not to support her. Acton has said she has not seen her mother since she was about 12 years old, when she says the man her mother married sexually abused her and faced criminal charges.

Renacci added in the post that “sympathy can become a powerful political force” in elections.

“Elections aren’t won simply by convincing voters that your opponent is worse. They’re won by convincing voters that you’re better,” he added.

It comes as a growing number of Republicans in the state criticize the campaign ad.

In a new poll from The Cook Political Report, Ramaswamy is trailing behind Acton by five percentage points. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has also moved the race from a “tossup” to “leans Democratic.”

CNN’s Patrick Svitek and Lauren Fox contributed to this post.

Less than two weeks ahead of the November 3 elections, Democratic Senate candidates have a slight lead in three Republican states, according to new polls from The Cook Political Report.

The polls also found that voters trust these Democratic candidates over their opponents when it comes to the top issues of the midterm elections: affordability and corruption. The report warned, however, that the races are not a done deal, especially in Iowa, where the lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

The Cook Political Report also polled voters on the gubernatorial races in these three states and found Democratic candidates leading in two of them.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a top election forecaster, is now describing the gubernatorial race in Ohio as favorable to Democrats after previously predicting it to be a “tossup.”

This week, Ramaswamy faced backlash, including from within his own party , for an ad that featured Acton’s estranged mother.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad targeting his Democratic opponent is drawing bipartisan criticism , with one GOP operative telling CNN there is a sense he could jeopardize the party’s brand.

“I would not have run that ad,” Senate candidate Jon Husted told the Associated Press. He’s one of multiple Ohio Republicans criticizing the move.

A longtime political adviser told CNN that in a culture where the extremes have gone so far, many think “we can take it further than before and there will be no consequences and no accountability.” Here’s that conversation:

And Republican Texas lawmaker Dade Phelan told CNN Ramaswamy’s move “may have sealed the deal” for Acton.

The criticism from Ohio Republicans comes despite Vice President JD Vance’s defense of the ad — and warning not to criticize it.

Vance’s position, too, has faced backlash :

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton told CNN she is “not stunned” by the ad featuring her estranged mother calling her a liar . She said a previous ad featuring her mother that aired while she was a health official during the pandemic was not covered as extensively by the media “because it was so clear that she wasn’t well.”

Even before the ad featuring Acton’s mom, the race had become filled with brutal attack ads. Ohio voters say they’re turned off by ads from both sides.

In the state’s Senate race, a Democrat is fighting for a comeback. Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead of incumbent Husted in two new polls: one from Fox News gives Brown a 5-point lead and another from the Cook Political Report’s Battleground Project has him up by 6.

Ohio is No. 2 on CNN’s latest ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip.

CNN’s Tori B. Powell, Patrick Svitek, Lauren Fox and Kit Maher contributed reporting.

Michigan Senate candidates Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had a tense exchange over accusations that El-Sayed has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Michigan Senate candidates Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had a tense exchange over accusations that El-Sayed has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sayed, who has denounced the group, told Rogers, “It’s really quite beneath you to call into question my loyalty to the Constitution."

The Michigan Senate debate between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers was bitterly personal and ferociously contested — as befits a contest that could decide the chamber’s majority.

El-Sayed, the former executive director of the Detroit Health Department, needed to pin Rogers, a former congressman, to the deeply unpopular President Donald Trump and his economy — and to assuage questions from moderates about his politics.

Meanwhile, Rogers is trying to win in a state currently run by Democrats while dragging Trump’s historically low approval ratings behind him. His only hope is to disqualify El-Sayed as an acceptable senator in the eyes of voters.

During an at-times fierce debate, the two traded accusations over El-Sayed’s loyalty to America and Rogers’ loyalty to Trump.

A CNN Poll of Polls finds no clear leader between El-Sayed and Rogers.

Read more takeaways from the debate here .

Prev Swipe Story Next

Same Story from Other Publications

Compare how 6 other independent news outlets reported on this story.

6 Publications
CNBC World
1h ago
A 29-year-old put $5,000 on Vivek Ramaswamy to win Ohio. Then he lost it all

A 29-year-old put $5,000 on Vivek Ramaswamy to win Ohio. Then he lost it all

An Ohio man says he lost $5,000 on a Kalshi contract predicting Vivek Ramaswamy would win the 2026 governor race.

#ohio #election
Compare →
NPR News
1d ago
El-Sayed says Dems need to earn their mandate and take 'righteous risks' : NPR's Newsmakers

El-Sayed says Dems need to earn their mandate and take 'righteous risks' : NPR's Newsmakers

Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed says Americans “temporarily” put their trust and hope in Democrats. But he adds that if his party doesn’t act boldly when its takes control of Congress, Democrats may lose that trust. El-Sayed is the first Muslim to be elected to the U.S. Senate. The 42-year-old from Michigan is now calling for new Senate leadership and urging President Trump to meet and discuss how they can “figure out what we can work on and get done.”El-Sayed, a former Detroit public health official, even floated the idea of naming major healthcare legislation after Trump.“Put his name on it,” El-Sayed said. “He'll probably pass it. I'm not above doing that. I don't care what it's called.”In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, El-Sayed sat down with NPR host Leila Fadel to talk about a divisive campaign season, the future of the Democratic Party and how Congress should legislate during the final two years of Trump’s term in the White House.Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available — any day of the week. Follow or subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or wherever you watch or listen to podcasts to get new episodes as soon as possible. You can also find Newsmakers on the NPR app.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.

#democrats #sen
Compare →
SBS News Australia
1d ago
'We are on the rise': Democrats hail first Black senator to win a Mississippi seat since 1874

'We are on the rise': Democrats hail first Black senator to win a Mississippi seat since 1874

The last Black candidate elected to the Senate in Mississippi was former slave Blanche Bruce in 1874.

#election #democrats
Compare →
Al Jazeera English
1d ago
Democrat Scott Colom wins closely watched US Senate race in Mississippi

Democrat Scott Colom wins closely watched US Senate race in Mississippi

The historic victory flips an eighth US Senate seat for Democrats after last week's pivotal midterm election.

#election #democrats
Compare →
ABC News Australia
18h ago
Live: Victorian election campaign rolls on as parties appeal to regions

Live: Victorian election campaign rolls on as parties appeal to regions

Liberal leader Jess Wilson was spotted pouring beers in Wodonga last night, while the Carroll government has promised to freeze a tax on farmers if re-elected.

#election
Compare →
Sydney Morning Herald (SMH)
23h ago
The key issues giving Minns an edge four months out from election

The key issues giving Minns an edge four months out from election

Voters have delivered their verdicts on which party they think is best to manage hospitals and health services, the education system and housing.

#election
Compare →

Related Stories

Politics & Governance
Build #2611