The Wallabies will play four Tests in this November tour but, unusually, we only know their opponents in three of them: England, Scotland and Wales.
This is the first year the Rugby Championships is being run, and the last weekend features a three-day, finals format at Twickenham.
The Wallabies sit third on the Southern Hemisphere table after the first three rounds in July. They banked eight points via a win over Italy and four bonus points accrued in losses to Ireland, France and the Azzuri.
The finals will see the same ranked sides from the north and south pools face off over three days: so 1 v 1, 2 v 2, and so on, down to 6 v 6. A Ryder Cup-style hemisphere winner will be crowned.
The pass mark for the Wallabies on the tour should be two wins, at least. They should be beating a struggling Wales, and if they’re serious about making the last weekend of the World Cup next year, Les Kiss’ side need to be taking down either England or Scotland as well.
When firing, the Wallabies have the game to beat either, but have largely struggled against these two foes at Twickenham and Murrayfield. That corner must be turned, and these games treated as a dress rehearsal for the World Cup finals.
Next year, the Wallabies will need to have unshakeable belief they can win high-stakes, high-pressure games. The 2015 Wallabies definitely had it.
Best guesses will see the Wallabies play England in the World Cup quarters. If Scotland can roll Ireland in their pool of death to avoid France in the round of 16, they have every chance of getting into the semis, and that’s also on Australia’s side.
So wins this month count double. Not so much for Nations Championship bragging rights, but for long-term belief and muscle memory.
Who will the Wallabies play in the finals? They’re in third, a spot above Argentina, and will likely finish in that order. On the other side, Scotland, England and Ireland are jockeying for spots 2, 3 and 4, and there is a realistic path for them to finish in any order.
The Irish should bank at least two wins, but England and Scotland could, too. Australia could prove a blowfly in the ointment. Or at least they hope to be.
It wouldn’t be a “burning questions” without this evergreen favourite.
The likely scenario is that Declan Meredith will retain the starting role against England, with Carter Gordon returning from a broken leg and light on recent game and training time.
He may be seen as the top pick, long-term, but Gordon is also injury-prone, so there’s every chance he’ll be eased back in training this week and return either on the bench, or in week two.
Meredith did his stock price no harm in Sydney, according to Les Kiss. He overcame mistakes and showed spirit in taking the game on.
The form guide – no excuses when again running last behind New Zealand in a two-horse field – doesn’t provide cause for optimism. But before arriving at Twickenham in 2024, the Wallabies were in a similar spot.
They’d also come off a 2-0 Bledisloe bruising in 2024, and been beaten by a record margin by Argentina before that. Ben Youngs wasn’t alone in being dismissive of the Wallabies.
But then they pulled off an all-time win . Understanding how is the key to making history repeat. In the last decade, England have won five of six games at home against Australia, and each time they’ve snuffed out the Wallabies defensively. They held the Wallabies to an average of 13.5 points in each win, and didn’t concede more than two tries. On two occasions, they didn’t let Australia cross their line.
In 2024, however, the Wallabies scored five tries in a 42-37 win. They turned the pressure back on England and scored tries wide, or struck on turnover ball. But they also found yardage in the middle, through the likes of Angus Bell and clever tip passes at the line. And they never gave up, from multiple positions where the game looked lost.
The other big factor in Australia winning in 2024 was the aerial influence of Suaalii, on debut. Particularly on restarts.
Last year the Wallabies lost the aerial war, badly, and so it would seem very prudent to have the million-dollar man playing wing, catching bulk high balls. But with Hunter Paisami out of the tour, Kiss will likely keep Suaalii at No.13, and with Len Ikitau at No.12.
Not early on, but Beale is only one midfield injury from winning cap No.96. Isaac Henry can cover both centres but after that, it’s Beale. Kiss has copped criticism for drafting in the 37-year-old , but anyone who has seen Beale play recently will know he still has the skills required.
The legs may be a different question but, in truth, the Wallabies desperately need a second experienced ball-player – and if Ikitau is not there, they don’t have one.
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