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Who will win the 2026 US midterm elections? Ask Latinos – Stateside with Kai and Carter

The Guardian •
October 29, 2026 • 10:00 AM
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If there is going to be a blue wave, as polling suggests, Latinos are going to be essential. Carlos Eduardo Espina, a news commentator, and Stephanie Valencia, a pollster, tell Kai Wright there are signs that the economy, the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign and Republican redistricting efforts are backfiring – and Latinos seem to be swinging back to Democrats this year.

Who will win the 2026 US midterm elections? Ask Latinos – Stateside with Kai and Carter

Are the Democrats really going to take Texas? If there is going to be a blue wave, as polling suggests, winning the Lone Star state is going to be essential. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for US Senate, is currently leading against Ken Paxton, a scandal-ridden political survivor. Even the gubernatorial race in Texas, pitting Greg Abbot, the current governor, against Gina Hinojosa is within the margin of error. These elections, and ultimately control of the US Congress, are likely to be decided by one key demographic – Latinos. Hispanic men were key to Donald Trump’s 2024 win. But Carlos Eduardo Espina, a news commentator, and Stephanie Valencia, a pollster, tell Kai Wright there are signs that the economy, the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign and Republican redistricting efforts are backfiring – and Latinos seem to be swinging back to Democrats this year. Espina and Valencia break down what we really mean by 'the Latino vote' and how those voters might just swing right back next election if Democrats aren’t careful.

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