The potential impact of Cyclone ‘Arnab’ is expected to bring significant rainfall across several river basins in Nepal, with river water levels likely to rise through Kartik 15, according to the Flood Forecasting Division.
Issuing a precautionary warning, the division has urged people living near rivers and streams to remain alert and take necessary safety measures amid the possibility of increased water flows.
According to the division, the Narayani, Bagmati, Kamala, Kankai and Koshi river basins, along with their tributaries, are likely to experience a greater impact from the rainfall.
The expected increase in rainfall could raise river flows and create risks of flash floods in the hilly and Chure regions, while some areas of the Terai may face waterlogging and inundation.
However, based on the current assessment, the possibility of water levels in major rivers exceeding their warning thresholds remains low. The division has nevertheless advised the public to remain cautious, as the level of risk could change depending on the actual amount of rainfall and river conditions.
The latest flood forecast indicates that water levels in the Narayani, Koshi, Bagmati, Kamala and Kankai river basins will begin to rise gradually from Thursday.
On Friday, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast in these basins and their tributaries, which could lead to a significant rise in river levels. Water levels in the Mahakali, Karnali, West Rapti and Babai rivers are also expected to rise moderately.
The division has projected that river levels in major rivers could reach their highest point on Saturday. Despite the expected rise, the probability of major rivers crossing their warning thresholds remains low under the current forecast.
On Kartik 15, light rainfall is expected in some areas of the Koshi, Bagmati and Narayani basins. Following this, the flood risk is expected to gradually decrease.
Meanwhile, snowfall and avalanche risks have also been identified in the high Himalayan areas of the Koshi and Narayani river basins.
The hilly and Chure areas of the Narayani, Bagmati, Kamala, Kankai and Koshi basins could experience flash floods on Thursday and Friday, while some parts of the Terai could face inundation.
The Flood Forecasting Division has warned of a moderate risk of sudden rises in water flow in small rivers and streams in the hilly and Chure regions on Kartik 12, 13 and 14.
People living or travelling near riverbanks and streams, as well as those working in vulnerable areas, have been urged to monitor weather and flood updates and undertake activities only after assessing the prevailing conditions.
The division has also called on residents to remain particularly vigilant against sudden changes in river levels and possible flash floods during the period.
