The number of passengers forecast to board driverless trains has been increased at four stations along the final stretch of Sydney’s $30 billion M1 metro line during the morning peak hour, as expectations grow about the popularity of services from the south-west into the central city.
The patronage forecast for the 8am to 9am peak on weekdays has been raised the most for Dulwich Hill station – up by 300 passengers to 1000 – followed by stations at Hurlstone Park, Canterbury and Belmore, which each have been increased by 200 commuters.
The projections for Bankstown and Campsie have dropped by 100 passengers each to 2100 and 1400, respectively, from forecasts last year. The drop for Bankstown has been attributed to reductions in on-street parking spaces.
Residential development is the main driver of changes to forecasts by Sydney Metro for stations along the south-west section, as well as the fact that there had been two years of growth since the T3 heavy rail line was closed to be converted to carry driverless trains. The M1 line’s final stage between Bankstown and Sydenham will open early on Friday .
Sydney Metro customer and planning executive director Samantha Phillips said the changes to the station patronage modelling primarily reflect residential development in areas along the corridor, and expected demand for high-frequency train services.
“[The modelling is] showing a higher number of people using the metro than previously on the T3 [heavy rail line], and also people’s propensity to choose it because of the higher frequency and higher reliability,” she said.
Phillips said she was curious to watch, once the line opens, the extent to which people walked further than usual or caught other public transport such as light rail to “travel back to go forward” on metro trains.
“Our models suggest that some people will do that because it’s a faster trip,” she said. “Safety, reliability and frequency – they’re the three things that really drive customer satisfaction and keep people turning up.”
The modelling forecasts 9500 passengers will use the south-west section from 8am to 9am on weekdays, a 34 per cent rise on patronage on the T3 heavy rail line before it was closed in September 2024 .
The latest forecasts represent a 10 per cent increase in passengers in the hour-long period compared to Sydney Metro’s estimates in September last year of 8600 commuters when the line opens.
Sydney Metro is forecasting a 13 per cent surge to 300,000 passenger trips on weekdays along the M1 line when the final 13-kilometre south-west section opens and extends it to 66 kilometres of track between Tallawong and Bankstown via the central city.
Phillips expects people to use cycling and pedestrian paths along the corridor to access metro stations and catch trains. “There’s going to be a lot of people wanting to cycle up or walk up and access the service,” she said.
Inner West Council Mayor Darcy Byrne said the easier transport access provided by the metro line from other parts of the city would be a shot in the arm for the local economy, especially nightlife and hospitality.
Byrne said significant increases in homes planned near the metro stations would also make residential developments more feasible. “Over the next decade, with the metro open and our housing plans approved, you’ll see significant increase in housing along the south-west line,” he said.
“The point of the metro is that you’re providing a really good long-term public transport option that can support the increased housing that will come over time.”
The $57 million GreenWay , which weaves north to south through five inner-west suburbs, was completed last year, while a 13.8-kilometre pathway dubbed the MetroWay will be built parallel to the Southwest Metro line. The two will intersect at Dulwich Hill.
Planning consent requires the MetroWay to be completed within two years of the opening of the metro train line between Bankstown and Sydenham.
Every time the pink buses come up in conversation, I turn straight to Canterbury’s dead man’s turn. In February, I was vindicated.
The final section of Sydney’s $30 billion M1 metro rail line will probably be the last built on the old freight lines.
The long-awaited Southwest Metro is promising faster train services. But along its 30km corridor, the biggest transformation could take place above ground.
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