This guide will be updated when the field is set with comments from Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Michelle Payne assessing each runner’s chances.
If the early bird catches the worm, then we are giving you every chance to pick the winner of this year’s Melbourne Cup.
We have burned the midnight oil a week out from the race that stops the nation to provide a comprehensive runner-by-runner guide to the top 31 chances in this year’s event – the field of 24 will be finalised on Saturday night.
The top 24 have been ordered in most likely saddle cloth numbers – from top weight down to bottom weight.
6yoG (gelding) 57.5kg Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Ryan Moore Career: 23: 6-2-6 Last start: Second of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes Leopardstown
Russell says: A dual group 2 winner from Ireland who sounds more like a midday soapie than a racehorse. That being said, in our view he has more chance of winning an Emmy than the Melbourne Cup, considering he has to lug 57.5kg to victory first-up in Australia.
6yoH (stallion) 57kg Trainer: Yasuo Tomomichi. Jockey: Christophe Lemaire Career: 12: 6-2-0 Last start: 13th of 18 G1 Takarazuka Kinen 2200m
Russell says: Japanese horses generally get the shivers at the hint of rain, so a big watch on the weather forecast. If we have a dry track, go on his win two starts back in a group 3 over 3401m. That puts him right in the mix. Jockey Christophe Lemaire won the 2011 Cup on Dunaden. If dry, can win. If wet, could finish last.
7yoG 57kg Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: James McDonald Career: 30: 9-7-4 Last start: 4th of 7 G1 Irish St Leger 2816m
Russell says: If you believe in the saying, ‘follow the money’, this is the horse for you. He’s owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus, who used to be a bookmaker. That’s a good lead right there. He is also a group 2 winner with a serious chance. Watch to see if McManus bets up big on Cup eve. Top five hope.
5yoG 56.5kg Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle Career: 9: 3-1-1 Last start: First of six G2 Prix Kergorlay Deauville 2999m
Russell says: The UK’s version of Pride Of Jenni who will turn this year’s race into a war of attrition. Capable of leading from start to finish in the same manner as O’Brien’s 2020 Cup winner Twilight Payment. The Kergorlay is a good form guide, having thrown up Cup winners Americain (2010) and Protectionist (2014), but a 24-horse Cup field might cause him agoraphobia.
7yoG 56.5kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Mark Zahra Career: 26: 6-2-3 Last start: Eighth of 12 G1 Cox Plate 2040m
Russell says: If this galloper’s name has been plucked from JRR Tolkien mythology, then surely his trainer, Ciaron Maher, qualifies as some sort of modern-day wizard. Maher is on fire and has given this fellow the old-fashioned Cup preparation. Bart Cummings’ rule was 10km – he has racked up 9.94km in five lead-up races. He looked good late in the Cox Plate. A winning chance.
7yoG 56.5kg Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon. Jockey: Robbie Dolan Career: 31: 6-3-3 Last start: 14th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: The shock 2024 winner was robbed of the chance to defend his crown in 2025 because of the equine equivalent of a lockdown. Not COVID-19, but strangles – a contagious bacterial disease – that was detected at Macedon Lodge on the eve of last year’s spring. Great run in the Herbert Power two starts back, might have copped interference in Caulfield Cup. Can’t win.
9yoG 56.5kg Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott. Jockey: TBC Career: 33: 10-5-6 Last start: Ninth of 13 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m
Russell says: The veteran is lining up for his fourth Melbourne Cup – the first two for Irish trainer Willie Mullins before he was sold to Australian connections to be trained by Waterhouse and Bott. He finished sixth last year, but might not be going as well. Although he was first-up in the Geelong Cup, so hard to tell.
6yoG 56kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: TBC Career: 22: 7-3-4 Last start: 15th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: Cooked in the Caulfield Cup by a head-scratching ride from visiting hoop Jamie Spencer. He bolted to the front, whacked on the handbrakes and then looked confused when the pressure went back on from the 800m. He was flying before that. Outside the top 10.
7yoG 56kg Trainer: Roger Varian. Jockey: Ray Dawson (TBC) Career: 17: 5-2-3 Last start: Third of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: Best of internationals in the Caulfield Cup, and in my view, internationals need an impressive lead-up run in Australia if they are to win the Melbourne Cup. He ticks that box. And for those struggling to pronounce his name, Google says Enfjaar means “burst” in Arabic. Top 10.
5yoG 56kg Trainer: Harry Charlton. Jockey: Damien Lane Career: 11: 4-2-0 Last start: 11th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: Purchased abroad by Australian Bloodstock, who have won the Cup with Protectionist and Gold Trip, and was a massive spruik horse leading into the Caulfield Cup. Sadly for punters, he didn’t live up to expectations. Needs a gigantic turnaround.
8yoM (mare) 55kg Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Wayne Lordan Career: 31: 14-2-7 Last start: Tenth of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes 2414m
Russell says: A former hurdler who ran a surprise second in the Melbourne Cup last year. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, who has already won the race twice, and owned by Irish billionaire JP McManus. Slightly disappointing last start, but that might have been a pipe owner. Top 10 finish.
6yoG 55kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Sam Clipperton Career: 20: 6-3-6 Last start: First of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m
Russell says: In hot form, having won its past two starts, including a big win in the group 2 Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3. Didn’t make the cut for the Caulfield Cup, but many believed he could have won the race. Copped a 1.5kg for the MV Gold Cup win. Still think he brings the B-grade form. Top 10.
8yoG 55kg Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: TBC Career: 33: 8-1-2 Last start: 12th of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: Caught up in the backwash of the tragic fall in the Caulfield Cup. A group 1-winning stayer from New Zealand owned by former Kiwi cricket great Mark Greatbatch and now in the Chris Waller barn. An outsider, but any rain will help.
7yoG 55kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Blake Shinn Career: 24: 6-5-2 Last start: Fifth of 12 G1 Cox Plate 2040m
Russell says: Aiming to become the first grey to win the Cup since Efficient in 2007, and has had the perfect preparation – second in the Caulfield Cup followed by an absolute flashing light run in the Cox Plate. Traditionally, that is a winning formula. Top three pick.
5yoG 54.5kg Trainer: George Boughey. Jockey: Zac Lloyd Career: 10: 3-3-2 Last start: Second of 22 Ebor Handicap 2787m
Russell says: Another international with decent credentials, but will have to defy history to win this year’s Cup. No runner has come out of York’s Ebor Handicap and saluted on the first Tuesday in November. But a few have been close – Heartbreak City ran second in 2017, while Purple Moon was a runner-up in 2007. Sits 24th in order of entry, so still not guaranteed a start.
9yoG 54.4kg Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons. Jockey: Declan Bates Career: 51: 6-11-6 Last start: 11th of 13 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m
Russell says: Has gone off the boil. The veteran started second favourite and ran 12th in the 2024 Melbourne Cup after winning the Geelong Cup in the lead-up. Won the MV Gold Cup last year before finishing 16th in the Cup. Not going as well this year. Will be grateful they pay back to last.
6yoG 54.5kg Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Tommy Berry Career: 26: 5-5-6 Last start: Eight of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: Ran second in the Sydney Cup over 3200m but has been slightly disappointing at his past two starts, including a seventh in The Metropolitan. Might have been ridden upside down in the Caulfield Cup. Needs to improve.
5yoH 54.5kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ben Melham Career: 12: 4-2-1 Last start: Sixth of 18 G1 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Russell says: This year’s smoky, considering he started second favourite in the Caulfield Cup and was clearly disadvantaged after being caught up in the tragic mid-race fall. Has not raced over 2400m, but being Irish-bred should relish the two miles. Top five chance.
4yoH 53.5kg Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. Jockey: Craig Williams Career: 8: 2-1-2 Last start: 6th of 11 G3 Kilternan Stakes 2414m
Russell says: Another northern hemisphere three-year-old bought by a big group of Aussies. Three things to consider here: He is still trained by O’Brien. Tick. He was sourced by big Melbourne buyer Ozzie Kheir. Tick. Craig Williams sought the ride. Double tick. He is a group 3 winner, lightly raced, and will carry a light weight. First-up in Australia the only concern. A first-four pick.
4yoH 53kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ethan Brown (TBC) Career: 5: 3-1-0 Last start: First of 13 G3 Geelong Cup 2400m
Russell says: Point to the winner’s circle more like it. This striking specimen’s Geelong Cup victory was the greatest Melbourne Cup audition since Dunaden did the Geelong-Melbourne double in 2011. A northern hemisphere three-year-old who supposedly cost his Aussie owners $3.5 million, and might be worth every cent. Maher did caution about him being inexperienced. Top three.
4yoM 53kg Trainer: Thomas Carberry. Jockey: TBC Career: 11: 2-2-0 Last start: 16th of 16 G2 MV Gold Cup 2500m
Russell says: One of the stories of last spring when she won the VRC Oaks for a big group of Irish expats and small-time Ballarat trainer Carberry. Ballarat’s Miners Rest Tavern has never been the same since. But she has struggled to make the transition from three-year-old to open company. Not going well enough.
6yoG 52.5kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Jabez Johnstone Career: 20: 6-2-2 Last start: Third of 16 G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m
Russell says: Flopped in this year’s Sydney Cup despite starting second favourite, which is a bit of a concern. Qualified for the race by winning the group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m) on a heavy Flemington track on October 3. Maybe a rung below the top-liners, but any rain will help.
6yoG 52kg Trainer: Grahame Begg. Jockey: William Pike Career: 18: 5-2-1 Last start: 11th of 11 G2 Crystal Mile 1600m
Russell says: Booked a golden ticket in May by winning the Andrew Ramsden Stakes (2800m). That form looks like an egg-and-spoon race compared to other Cup form lines. But Begg is an astute old-school trainer and jockey-of-the-moment Willie Pike takes the ride. Last start was merely a warm-up lap.
5yoM 51kg Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Harry Coffey Career: 20: 7-3-1 Last start: Second of 15 G3 Tesio Stakes 2040m
Russell says: Another golden ticket winner, having saluted in the group 3 Archer Stakes at Flemington in September, but looms as a contender for Caulfield Cup-winning jockey Harry Coffey. Dusted off the cobwebs with a strong second in the group 3 Tessio Stakes on Cox Plate day.
The Euphrates (GB) – Twenty-fifth on the order of entry. Entered in Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup.
Future History (GB) – Twenty-sixth in the order of entry, so is borderline to make the final cut.
Kizlyar (IRE) – Twenty-seventh in the order of entry. Needs luck to make the field.
So You Are – Twenty-eight in the order of entry. Needs to win Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup to guarantee a start.
Litzdeel (NZ) – Thirty-third in the order of entry. Needs to win the Bendigo Cup.
Kings Valley (IRE) – Thirty-sixth in the order of entry. Needs to win Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup to make the field.
Soulcombe (GB) – Needs a top three finish in the Bendigo Cup to pass the ballot clause and make the field.
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