Relations between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took a sharp downward turn in recent weeks, with each leader openly criticising the other. The two have long had a testy relationship, but Trump’s frustration over Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure triggered a crisis that Kyiv’s supporters fear could threaten vital US support going forward.
Trump has been sceptical of US involvement in Ukraine ever since his first term when, shortly after taking office in early 2017, he was asked to provide lethal aid to Ukraine and approved the sale of Javelin missiles to Kyiv.
“Everyone around him wanted him to do it, and they pushed him hard and he eventually signed off on selling them Javelins, very reluctantly,” said a former senior Trump administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He didn’t consider it a core US interest. It was a European issue.”
Trump’s first major encounter with Zelenskiy came in a July 2019 phone call in which the Republican president asked the Ukrainian leader to investigate his Democratic rival Joe Biden and his son Hunter, in exchange for military support Congress had authorised.
That episode led to Trump’s first impeachment. Biden beat Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
Trump also has fostered a relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin that runs against the norms of US foreign policy but echoes his warm ties with authoritarian leaders Xi Jinping of China and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un.
“Trump has always wanted better relations with Russia,” the former official said.
What Deepened the Rift Between the Two Leaders?
Trump’s current frustration centres on Kyiv’s attacks on Russian diesel infrastructure.
Diesel prices have hit record highs since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran in February, and global energy costs spiked. US lawmakers in Trump’s Republican Party face voter anger over inflation ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
On September 13, Trump began publicly calling on Ukraine to stop targeting diesel infrastructure. The following week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington was also concerned that Ukraine had hit US-linked oil shipments.
Ukraine has refused to halt the strikes, saying its long-range drone campaign is its only viable response to nearly five years of Russian bombardment. Moscow was forced in July to ban diesel exports as part of a raft of measures to address domestic fuel shortages.
Angered by Zelenskiy’s defiance, Trump on October 9 announced a deal to buy diesel from Moscow, issuing a temporary general license that allows Russian diesel to reach the global market. He also waived sanctions on Russia authorized by a bill he signed into law in September.
Suriya Jayanti, a former US official who runs a power sector company in Ukraine, said Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s power grid have increased, despite Trump unilaterally announcing an energy ceasefire on October 11.
"It is clear to everyone in Kyiv that the goal is not actually an energy ceasefire, but it is really just an effort to hobble Ukraine and give Russia a decisive advantage," said Jayanti, who is also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.
Has the US Threatened to Cut Off Support to Ukraine?
Zelenskiy has said Ukrainian military officials had been threatened by US counterparts, who said continuing the energy strikes would lead the US to cut off intelligence sharing. A US official familiar with the situation disputed Kyiv’s account.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the US official said there has been no increase in pressure on Ukraine.
“We don’t have to pressure Zelenskiy. If he wants to make a deal he’ll make a deal. I think Putin is putting a ton of pressure on him and he (Zelenskiy) is putting some pressure on Russia but Russia doesn’t seem to be minding it as much even though they are getting hit.”
On Thursday, Trump said he had asked SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to restore Ukraine’s access to the company’s Starlink satellite system. Starlink’s disruption temporarily hampered Kyiv’s military drone operations and spurred fears that Kyiv would be left defenseless against Russia’s attacks going into the winter.
What is the Status of Moscow-Kyiv Peace Talks?
Peace efforts have continued but so far have not yielded tangible results.
At talks in Oslo on October 20, Ukraine presented new proposals, and Trump’s son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner repeated Trump’s demand that Ukraine stop attacking Russian diesel refineries.
The next day, envoy Witkoff – a close friend of Trump’s - met Putin in St Petersburg. Putin agreed to release detained American Stephen Hubbard in what the two countries called a goodwill gesture.
Zelenskiy said on Friday that negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the US would meet in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November, a possible precursor to a meeting of the three countries’ leaders. The last US-mediated peace talks took place in February.
