First published 14 Nov 2026, 5:00am
Nearly 7 in 10 of the nation’s red-hot markets have been wiped out, new analysis shows
Australia’s property boom has been flipped on its head, with a severe borrowing squeeze wiping out 68 per cent of the nation’s red-hot sellers’ markets in just 12 months.
An exclusive new report measuring live buyer momentum has revealed the shocking scale of the national market reset, shifting from a frantic sellers’ landscape to one where buyers overwhelmingly hold the cards.
Hotspotting’s National Thermometer Index, which scores 3,700 Australian house and unit markets out of 100 based on sales volumes versus active listings, shows the national average has dropped from 56.0 to 49.1.
Former boom suburbs are now buyers’ markets
Over the past year, 2,661 markets – or 72 per cent of the country – have lost heat, with the data showing the number of Hot markets nationwide has plunged from 911 down to just 292.
The Neutral band has swollen to become the largest category, covering 1,412 markets, or 38 per cent of the country.
Meanwhile, the bottom end of the market is growing rapidly, with 871 markets now sitting in the buyer-friendly Cool or Cold zones.
“The numbers show how much things have changed,” Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder said.
“But the market has stepped down a band rather than fallen apart. This is a market that has moved from a Warm majority to a Neutral one, not a market in free fall.”
The report also uncovered growth markets beneath the broader chill. Picture: Getty Images
Despite the broader chill, the report uncovered a hidden band of opportunity building beneath the top end.
Mr Ryder said a market’s trajectory was more important than its temperature score.
“Where a market is heading matters more than where it sits on the heat scale,” he said.
With national property inventory up by nine per cent over the past year, buyers finally have more stock to choose from.
Hotspotting managing director Tim Graham said buyers had been battered by a severe drop in confidence, forcing a big shift in how Aussies purchase real estate.
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Hotspotting director Tim Graham: ‘Mother of all storms’
“At the moment we’ve had the mother of all storms really,” Mr Graham said.
“We’ve had global political issues, we’ve got the five interest rate rises this year, and we’ve got the budget on top of that. I think at the moment what we’re seeing is that we’ve got a lot of people starting to feel the pinch.”
Realestate.com.au senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the rapid rise in borrowing costs was fundamentally rewriting market dynamics across the country.
“Higher borrowing costs are now limiting what prospective buyers can borrow and afford to pay, contributing to weaker demand, with more choice and greater negotiating power adding to the downward pressure on prices,” Ms Creagh said.
Realestate.com.au senior economist Eleanor Creagh: Buyers have more choice
This squeeze has sparked a mass exodus of heat from expensive eastern postcodes into the nation’s most affordable limits.
Mr Ryder said the market was “resetting rather than busting,” with the majority of suburbs nationwide shifting from Warm to Neutral.
But he noted the most startling revelation was where the remaining heat had concentrated.
“The geography has flipped, and the leaders are not the usual names,” Mr Ryder said.
“A year ago the strongest conditions were in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth. Today Hobart, Darwin and Adelaide lead.”
The big housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne are under pressure. Picture: Newswire
Hobart was the only capital city to record a big surge in buyer momentum, with its average score jumping 8.8 points over the year to 67.4.
A huge 86 per cent of Hobart suburbs are now classified as Warm or Hot, with zero markets in the Cool or Cold bands.
Darwin follows closely, boasting a 90 per cent share of Warm or Hot markets and the tightest property supply in the country at just 1.4 months of inventory. Adelaide continues its five-year run as a benchmark market, with 86 per cent of its suburbs still fiercely contested and zero cold zones.
By contrast, the nation’s largest cities had been put on ice.
Brisbane had the biggest correction of any capital
Sydney’s once-frenzied market collapsed from 114 Hot suburbs to just 10.
The city’s average score plunged 10.6 points, with the slide heavily concentrated in the southwest where suburbs in Fairfield and Liverpool recorded some of the steepest falls in the country.
Melbourne was now the weakest of all large capitals . Just 22 per cent of its markets retained any real heat, while outer growth corridors like Melton and Wyndham have frozen over, ranking among the absolute coldest local government areas in Australia.
Brisbane had the most violent correction of any capital, falling 13.7 points over the year as its tally of Hot markets was wiped out from 206 down to 27.
The report noted a national buyer swing to the unit market. Picture: NewsWire/ Nadir Kinani
Perth, which led the nation alongside Brisbane last year, was also losing steam. Active property listings have surged 61 per cent, and its Hot markets have dwindled from 179 to 35, though it remains resilient from a high base.
With detached housing in major capitals stretching family budgets to the breaking point, Mr Graham said the national swing towards units was gaining pace.
“I think units specifically are in what we call the win-win-win scenario,” Mr Graham said. “You’ve got affordability being the first win … you’re getting higher rental yields … and the third one, which is not something that people believed would be possible for many decades, is that we can now get better growth in units than you can in houses.”
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