T he psychologist Jennifer Freyd identified a pattern often used by perpetrators: deny, accuse, and reverse victim and offender. More than one observer has noted that Donald Trump employs that pattern politically. With polls suggesting Republicans are likely to lose the House and perhaps the Senate too in the midterms, the man who refused to accept Americans’ democratic verdict in 2020 is hawking a narrative of cheating Democrats who will steal seats via illegitimate votes.
The January 6 insurrection showed how acute the peril to American democracy had become. It is more so now. This time, Republican efforts to undermine the results began well in advance. In 2020, Mr Trump’s vice-president, Mike Pence, the attorney general, William Barr, and others refused his most outrageous demands; now the justice department is supine. And the supreme court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act , which safeguarded against the worst kinds of racial discrimination, means that states no longer require pre-approval for decisions that could well tilt a race. Districts have already been redrawn.
Courts have so far blocked executive orders unconstitutionally claiming election powers that clearly lie with states. But the blizzard of efforts ensures that Republicans do not need to succeed every time. A few thousand or even hundred votes in key places could have a profound effect on the outcome. The all‑out push also intimidates potential voters. Whatever happens to the federal criminal investigation into alleged non‑citizen voting in California , and whether or not Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers are actually stationed near polling places as mooted , legitimate voters may fear drawing attention to undocumented relatives. Finally, all these threats and initiatives establish the false story of a stolen election, to be taken up more powerfully after votes are cast.
Mr Trump repeated his call for the prosecution of Mary Peltola, the Democratic senate candidate in Alaska, after the New York Times reported that her campaign had sought to confuse voters by recruiting another candidate with the same name as her Republican opponent, despite its denials. The state’s Republican governor has not committed to certifying the result if she wins. Putting up similarly named candidates is an old trick, as well as a dirty one. Though not inherently illegal, it is unethical and could potentially lead to criminal charges. It is not grounds for contesting the result of this race . But it is a gift to Republicans claiming that Democrats are pursuing election fixes – when the clear evidence is that the threat to US democracy comes from Mr Trump and his enablers.
There are two key checks to their wide-ranging and concerted efforts. The first is that, despite facing horrific abuse and death threats, election officials – including Republicans – have been assiduously preparing to resist anti-democratic efforts . That is tempered, however, by the determined Republican push to control election boards, with a growing number of election deniers in place.
The second is that a surge in early voting suggests that the obvious threat to democracy is motivating citizens to participate, and to ensure that their ballots count. Recent elections elsewhere – notably Brazil, where Mr Trump’s favoured far‑right candidate was rejected – show that a decisive message from voters is harder to challenge than a marginal one. The best defence of democracy is to show that people care about it. And the clearer the verdict, the better the prospects of upholding it.
