David Bonaddio, Real Estate Reporter
First published 12 Nov 2026, 12:00pm
Langwarrin house values could surge by $628,000 to $1.503m by 2036, according to REA Group modelling, despite the suburb being without a railway station for 45 years.
Langwarrin homeowners could be sitting on an extra $628,000 by 2036, but still have to drive to another suburb just to catch a suburban train.
New REA Group modelling suggests the southeast Melbourne suburb’s typical $875,000 house could reach $1.503m within a decade, despite its railway station having been closed for 45 years.
The suburb could join Melbourne’s million-dollar club by 2031, but there is no funded plan to bring its station back.
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And a $225m federal commitment towards electrifying the Frankston to Baxter railway, including a new Langwarrin station, was withdrawn in 2023 after the project was estimated to cost about $1.5bn.
Nearby Frankston North could also join the million-dollar club, with its typical $642,000 house projected to reach $1.067m by 2036.
Baxter homes could rise from $754,000 to $1.225m over the same period, leaving all three suburbs with seven-figure price tags despite gaps in their rail connections.
Frankston North’s typical house could climb from $642,000 to $1.067m by 2036, as doctors, nurses, tradies and young families increasingly target the suburb.
Langwarrin could join Melbourne’s million-dollar suburb club by 2031, with its typical $875,000 house forecast to reach $1.503m within a decade.
OBrien Real Estate Frankston agent Mark Burke said Frankston North was already attracting a new wave of buyers, including doctors, nurses, tradies and young families.
Three-bedroom houses on blocks of about 600sq m were still available for roughly $650,000, giving buyers an increasingly rare chance to secure a substantial property within reach of the Mornington Peninsula.
“It’s an area that’s really changed,” Mr Burke said.
MR Advocacy director Madeleine Roberts, who owns property in Frankston North, says public transport has failed to keep pace with housing growth, but better rail connections would not necessarily deliver an immediate price boost.
But MR Advocacy director Madeleine Roberts, who owns property in Frankston North, warned transport connections had failed to keep pace with the southeast’s changing housing market.
“We don’t have enough transport after Frankston,” Ms Roberts said.
She said the prospect of better railway connections was appealing, although a new station would not automatically deliver higher property values.
“I don’t think that we would see immediate changes in price point in Frankston North,” she said.
RMIT professor Jago Dodson says decades of housing expansion without adequate rail connections have left Melbourne households increasingly reliant on cars. Picture: RMIT
RMIT urban policy professor Jago Dodson said governments had spent decades allowing new housing to spread while leaving residents to provide their own transport.
He said rail had effectively been treated as optional because households could buy cars, avoiding the upfront cost of building public transport into growing suburbs.
“We should be building new suburbs with rail connections, but it’s been cheaper for governments not to do that,” Professor Dodson said.
He described electrifying the existing line to Baxter as a relatively straightforward rail-network improvement, although the broader question of which Melbourne projects should receive funding required serious consideration.
Langwarrin could join Melbourne’s million-dollar suburb club by 2031, with its typical $875,000 house forecast to reach $1.503m within a decade.
Plans for the new Baxter Station of the now scrapped Frankton to Baxter Rail project.
“It’s a relatively easy win to extend the electrified network to Baxter,” he said.
Professor Dodson said Melbourne needed a proper metropolitan transport plan to rank projects by need and benefit, rather than relying on election promises.
He warned rapidly growing suburbs elsewhere in Melbourne were also missing essential rail connections, leaving households dependent on increasingly congested roads.
By 2036, Langwarrin families could be living in $1.5m homes and still driving to another suburb just to catch a train.
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