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Across the river from Russia, one city asks: Are we next?

SBS News Australia •
October 14, 2026 • 06:36 PM
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The sleepy city has become the focus of intense international speculation.

Across the river from Russia, one city asks: Are we next?

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Crossing the Narva River is the Friendship Bridge, a name some locals joke might need reconsidering.

On the west bank of the river is Estonia, a member of both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union. On the east bank lies the Russian Federation.

The river marks the boundary between two very different political and security spheres, leaving Narva, a sleepy Estonian city of about 53,000 residents, on the frontline of growing tensions between Moscow and the West.

In recent months, security officials and diplomats from several European countries have warned Moscow is considering a limited operation in one of the Baltic states — designed to test the unity and resolve of its Western allies.

The warnings have fuelled a stark question: is Narva next?

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The speculation has brought dozens of foreign journalists to the city, around a three-hour drive east of the Estonian capital, Tallinn.

Narva's mayor, Jaan Toots, has given more interviews to international press than one might expect from someone in his position, hoping to counter the growing 'Narva is next' narrative.

"I think this is being played up a little by Ukraine, to keep the whole of Europe on edge, to suggest that Europe is under threat, not just Ukraine," he tells SBS News.

But Narva's relationship with Russia is more complex than its position on the map might suggest.

Narva, about 700km north-west of Moscow, is often dubbed the 'most Russian city in the European Union'.

Around 95 per cent of its inhabitants speak Russian as their first language, although more residents are using Estonian in everyday life since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

An estimated one-third of residents hold Russian rather than Estonian citizenship.

The city's ties stretch back generations, predating the Soviet Union, with many families having relatives on both sides of the border.

We meet Tatiana on her way to work at the local council. She says the skies are peaceful and, for most residents, life in Narva continues largely as normal.

"Of course, we do get drawn into certain situations; for example, they test the sirens here, which isn't really normal in peacetime. But overall, living here, right on the border, I haven't personally seen any acts of aggression by Russia towards Estonia," Tatiana tells SBS News.

The most visible change since Russia's invasion of Ukraine is at the Friendship Bridge border crossing, one of three crossing points still open between Estonia and Russia.

Concrete pyramids, linked by chains and wrapped in razor wire, now restrict access to the crossing.

Before the war, up to 6,000 people crossed each day, along with buses and other vehicles. Now, fewer than 1,000 people cross daily, on foot and only during daylight hours.

Estonia's government has repeatedly warned citizens against travelling to Russia, even to visit relatives just across the border, citing limited consular support if something goes wrong.

While many residents have grown frustrated with the 'Narva is next' narrative, some, like Rene Abramson, believe the attention serves a useful purpose.

"It's good the world is speaking about Narva. It would be much worse if everyone pretended there is no danger, it's all good, let's not talk about it. That's a bad thing to do," he tells SBS News.

"If there is a danger, there is some possibilities our big and aggressive neighbour can do something; we have to talk about it and prepare for it."

The head of maintenance at a local school, Abramson says most locals have grown used to talk of the potential threat across the river.

"This full-scale war has been going since 2022, almost 5 years. You can't be anxious all those five years. Sometimes you feel anxious, you feel in danger; sometimes you forget about it, it's a summer day, and all's good."

Pro-Kremlin voices in Moscow have been playing up threats to Narva.

Moscow has not publicly signalled any imminent military operation against Narva. But Russian officials have repeatedly portrayed NATO's growing military presence near Russia's borders as a threat, while pro-Kremlin voices have helped fuel speculation about the Baltic states' vulnerability.

A recent post on the messaging platform Telegram, shared widely by pro-Kremlin users, showed three Russian soldiers standing on the banks of the Narva River.

Despite the rhetoric, Estonia's government remains sceptical that a Russian incursion, even a limited one, is imminent.

Jonathan Vseviov, secretary-general of Estonia's foreign ministry, tells SBS News: "There is no acute military danger, no danger of an acute military attack against us or against any other NATO country."

"That said, Russia continues to be the strategic challenge of our times."

Vseviov warns over-hyping the immediacy of the threat risks playing into the Kremlin's hands.

He says Estonia must also preserve the credibility of its warnings should the threat become more immediate.

"There may well come a time when Estonia has to go on television and see important people in allied governments and warn of an imminent danger," he says.

"A worst-case scenario where we need to cry wolf because the wolf has actually crossed the border and we need our friends and allies to come and help us. So that's the strategic reason why prematurely crying wolf is unwise."

Even as some officials play down the prospect of an imminent attack, Estonia is strengthening its defences.

The country is shifting towards a policy of 'active defence', moving forces closer to the border and building the Baltic Defence Line, a series of around 600 concrete bunkers, ditches and fences.

For now, Estonia's main security concern is Russian sabotage and other forms of 'grey zone' activity — actions designed to undermine a country without triggering an overt military response.

In August, Milrem Robotics, a manufacturer of autonomous ground vehicles for Ukraine's army, based on the outskirts of Tallinn, was targeted in an arson attack.

The Estonian government quickly confirmed Russian agents were believed to be responsible.

Marek Kohv, a former analyst for the Estonian security services, now leading the resilience program at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, believes countering 'grey zone' tactics should be the main focus of intelligence agencies.

"I think the Estonian police and internal security services have great experience … I wouldn't worry so much about Estonia or the Baltic states, but I think that some Western European countries are actually waking up now and understanding that Russia can quite freely operate in their territory also," he tells SBS News.

Back in Narva, entrepreneur Allan Kaldoja takes us on a tour of the former Soviet factory he's turned into a cultural complex. Alongside an Estonian-language theatre, the site includes a studio space, currently home to a Russian-language news program for Estonia's public broadcaster.

Well-versed in the city's history, he says while a small minority in Narva may still have pro-Russian views, most are happy to live as part of Estonia.

"For elderly people who came in the '60s or '70s here, believed in Soviet propaganda, speak only Russian language, you cannot change them.

"Some 10 per cent of people say, yes, we are waiting for [Vladimir] Putin, but the rest 90 per cent are not doing that.

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