Lumbini Lions are our pick to beat Karnali Yaks on Thursday, with a 52% win probability against 48% for the Yaks. The call comes down to form and firepower: Lumbini have won three of their last five, Karnali have lost three in a row, and Niroshan Dickwella gives the Lions the more dangerous top order. This Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions match prediction covers the toss, pitch and weather, squads and playing XI options, fantasy cricket tips and a full prediction table for the 23rd match of the Nepal Premier League.
Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions | 23rd Match | Nepal Premier League
BDT 4:45 PM / PKT 3:45 PM / INR 4:15 PM
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur
Karnali Yaks – W W L L L, Lumbini Lions – W A W W L
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Karnali Yaks are tipped to win the toss and bat first. Kirtipur’s recent games back that up: Kathmandu defended 160/8 against Lumbini and Pokhara defended 217/3 against Karnali, while both chases fell short. No pitch or dew report is confirmed, and the later start could bring dew in, so the bowl-first temptation is real. Treat this as a lean, not a lock.
Recent Kirtipur scorecards point to a surface that pays batters who commit. Pokhara hit 217/3 on November 9 and Karnali were bowled out for 154 chasing it. Two days earlier Kathmandu made 160/8 and Lumbini fell to 124 in 19.3 overs. The exception was Biratnagar’s 83 on November 5. With no official pitch report yet, this one favors whoever posts a target of 160 or more.
No temperature or dew figures were supplied for this fixture, so confident claims would be guesswork. The 4:45 PM BDT start moves the game toward evening, which is when dew tends to show up and make the ball harder to grip. If the weather report confirms dew before the toss, chasing gets easier and the bat-first lean above needs a second look.
Sompal Kami captains the side and is also the key bowler, so he carries two jobs at once. Karnali have won two of their last five and lost the last three, most recently by 63 runs to Pokhara on November 9, when they were bowled out for 154 chasing 218. A captain who bowls has to manage himself as well as the plan.
Ariful Islam is the key batter, and David Miller is our pick for top run-scorer and most sixes, with the team tipped to reach 170+. Jishan Alam, Deepak Dumre and Gulsan Jha sit in the squad behind them. This preview keeps asking the same thing: can the order get off to a quick start when the target is big?
Mark Watt is tipped for the most wickets, and Pawan Sarraf is the key all-rounder who lets Kami choose between an extra batter and an extra bowler. Karnali’s 2-0 record against Lumbini is nice to have, but the attack needs to hold a total better than it did last time out.
Ariful Islam, Jishan Alam, Mark Watt, Deepak Dumre, David Miller, Pawan Sarraf, Gulsan Jha, Sompal Kami, Nandan Yadav, Surya Tamang, Yuvraj Khatri
Rohit Paudel leads a side that has won three of its last five but lost the latest, going down by 36 runs to Kathmandu Gorkhas on November 7. Lumbini were chasing 161 and finished on 124 in 19.3 overs, with David Warner’s 66 off 50 deciding the contest. Paudel will want that chase explained before he picks a tactic.
Sundeep Jora is the key batter , but the headline name is Niroshan Dickwella, our choice for top run-scorer, most sixes and Player of the Match. The Lions are tipped to reach 180+. Aasif Sheikh adds depth up the order, and the batting looks stronger on paper than Karnali’s.
Abhishesh Gautam is the key bowler and Sher Malla is tipped for the most wickets. D’Arcy Short, the key all-rounder, gives the captain flexibility, and Grant Stewart, Ruben Trumpelmann, Dilip Nath and Tilak Bhandari complete a squad with several bowling options.
D’Arcy Short, Aasif Sheikh, Niroshan Dickwella, Rohit Paudel, Sundeep Jora, Dilip Nath, Grant Stewart, Ruben Trumpelmann, Abhishesh Gautam, Sher Malla, Tilak Bhandari
Our call is Lumbini Lions at 52% over Karnali Yaks at 48%, built on better recent form and the batting threat of Niroshan Dickwella. It is a narrow margin, and Karnali’s 2-0 head-to-head record is a fair reason to doubt it. Does that history matter more than current form? Tell us in the comments, and follow JeetBuzz for more updates, stats and analysis.
What time does KAY vs LUL start in IST?
The match starts at 4:15 PM IST on 12 November 2026.
Where can viewers in Bangladesh watch the match?
The match is available to steam live on Sports Live Hub (SLH).
Who are the key all-rounders for each side?
Pawan Sarraf for Karnali Yaks and D’Arcy Short for Lumbini Lions.
