Pete Hegseth's position is under threat for several reasons. ( Reuters: Evan Vucci )
The message from the White House is clear: Donald Trump is not backing down. He is doubling down.
In the days after his Republican Party's crushing midterm defeat, the US president wasted no time reshaping his administration.
Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles (considered vaguely moderate by MAGA standards) was replaced with hardliner Stephen Miller.
The president then offered the job of White House press secretary to his friend Dana White, the UFC chief executive.
Some analysts argue that a wounded Trump looking to leverage his final two years in office may be tempted to revamp his team with several changes.
And there is mounting speculation that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could be among them.
Hegseth, a former soldier and television presenter, was widely considered among Trump's most controversial cabinet nominees when the president returned to the White House for a second term.
Despite concerns from both sides of the congressional aisle about Hegseth's ability to run the world's largest military, the Senate confirmed him 51 votes to 50.
Hegseth, a combative Trump loyalist, has made few friends on Capitol Hill (even among Republicans) since his appointment.
Experts identify the 46-year-old's largest political vulnerability as being his vocal support for US military intervention in Iran.
The war is deeply unpopular with many Americans — something they made clear at the midterms.
It has weighed the Trump administration down and pushed fuel prices up.
Could Trump, who is refusing to take any responsibility for last week's electoral humiliation, look to make an example of Hegseth?
Pete Hegseth is widely considered among the Trump administration's most controversial members. ( Pool: Jam Sta Rosa via Reuters )
Tom Popinsky, a professor of government at Cornell University, said the president turning on one of his favourite appointments is not out of the question.
"You need to understand this in terms of President Trump imagining he's running The Apprentice reality television show again, in which he gets the chance to make big news by saying he's firing somebody," Professor Popinsky said.
"I think the argument for this happening is that he would interpret this as a TV ratings bump. He would get a ratings bump for firing Hegseth."
While Professor Popinsky said it was impossible to know whether this would happen, he added: "I do believe it's incredibly appealing from Trump's perspective to just go on TV and say: 'Hegseth, you're fired'.
"You can imagine this happening, you can imagine the spectacle around it."
Hegseth is said to have a good relationship with the incoming White House chief of staff.
After Miller's appointment on Friday, the defence secretary posted on social media: "Patriots in control."
Trump has publicly supported Hegseth, the value of which is unclear, because it did that with Wiles too.
In his final two years, Trump may decide to back people he perceives as uncompromising, like the former Fox News host, even more fervently.
But if the president does not move on his defence secretary, it appears Congress will.
From January, the Democrats will control both houses, and multiple politicians have already said they plan to impeach Hegseth.
Colorado Democrat Jason Crow posted a video online last week in which he confirmed he was "going after Pete Hegseth".
"Not only is he incompetent and corrupt, but he is undermining the safety of our troops," he said, adding, "I'm going to be relentless, night and day, to get him out of the Pentagon".
However, there is also speculation that defeated Republicans with nothing to lose could make an example of the defence secretary before they are replaced early next year.
Outgoing Republican congressman Thomas Massie, an outspoken critic of both Trump and Hegseth, has promised to force a vote on impeaching Hegseth as one of his final acts.
Massie has already attempted to impeach Hegseth previously, alleging the defence secretary had abused his powers in strikes on Iran and Yemen, ordering deadly attacks on small boats in the Caribbean, and a political investigation into anti-Trump Senator Mike Kelly, among other controversies.
He has urged the president to replace Hegseth and nominate a replacement before Republicans lose control of Congress (in the US, the Senate must approve key cabinet appointments).
"I would not be surprised if Hegseth resigned before January, or at least offered his resignation to Trump," Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard University, told the ABC.
Thomas Massie has been a thorn in the White House's side on several issues. ( Reuters: Al Drago )
In a video posted on social media, Hegseth described Massie as a "disgruntled, defeated congressman" who was conspiring with "Democrat allies" to impeach him.
The defence secretary said this was "political theatre, disguised as power".
"In case you hadn't noticed, they're obsessed," Hegseth said.
The House has only ever impeached two cabinet officials in history. Neither was convicted by the required two-thirds Senate majority.
Professor Popinsky described the current situation surrounding Hegseth as "norm breaking of the highest level".
"I think it is a signal both of the problem, and the magnitude of the solution," he said.
Donald Trump has said publicly he supports Pete Hegseth. ( Reuters: Jonathan Ernst )
On top of allegations of corruption and abuse of power, which Hegseth denies, critics have highlighted his judgement and style as issues.
He has also been accused of blocking promotions and removing members of the Pentagon's top brass due to personal differences.
Hegseth made headlines in September when he gave a speech to soldiers and enlisted leaders at a base in Virginia outlining the force he wanted: "No fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals."
Hegseth's October announcement that the US military would live-stream an execution by firing squad next month (something Trump has subsequently cancelled) saw him put on notice in Washington.
"I believe members of the Senate and Congress let Hegseth know he would be impeached if he did that," Professor Popinsky said.
"These are things that even conservative Republicans who have a strong fondness for the military find distasteful."
