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Anthropic’s S-1 compute plans are ‘highly uncertain’, analyst says

The Next Web (TNW) •
October 21, 2026 • 02:20 PM
• By Cristian Dina
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Anthropic’s S-1 draft shows an $80.7bn first-half loss, mostly an accounting charge, as revenue rose to $16.3bn from $1.1bn.

Anthropic’s S-1 compute plans are ‘highly uncertain’, analyst says

A new draft of Anthropic’s S-1, the prospectus for its IPO, puts its possible computing spend at $750bn over the coming years. That includes deals it is still negotiating. Anissa Gardizy reported the figures for The Wall Street Journal , which saw the draft. Echo Wang of Reuters also reviewed it and reported the loss and spending figures. The draft has not been made public, and TNW has not seen it.

Last month, Reuters reported that Anthropic had committed to spending at least $518bn over a decade. The new one shows a net loss of $80.7bn for the first half of 2026. A year earlier, the loss was $13bn.

Most of that loss is on paper, Reuters reported. A $72bn accounting charge reflects a rise in the value of bonds that could convert into Anthropic shares. It is not a cash cost of running the business.

Anthropic spent nearly $9bn on computing capacity and infrastructure in the six months to 30 June, the Journal reported. A year earlier, it spent $2.3bn. The new figure is more than the $7.3bn it spent in all of 2025, David Morris and Abhishek Vishnoi reported for Bloomberg , citing the Journal.

The prospectus also lists about $450bn of cloud deals over the next seven to ten years, according to the Journal. Most of them cannot be cancelled. They include $111bn with Google Cloud, $110bn with Amazon Web Services and $31bn with Microsoft.

Anthropic already faces more than $600bn in future infrastructure costs, Axios reported, citing the Journal. Deals under negotiation could add about $150bn. Broadcom has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42bn for its chips , Reuters reported this month.

Revenue rose to $16.3bn in the first half, from $1.1bn a year earlier. Anthropic made $4.6bn in all of 2025. Last week, it told investors its third-quarter revenue alone reached $16.8bn.

The risk factors include a narrow customer base and uncertain access to the computing power it needs, the Journal reported. They also flag models that show “self-preserving” qualities to avoid being switched off, Bloomberg reported. Another risk is responses that resemble “blackmail”. Anthropic also warns of political resistance to data centres in the US, where most of its capacity sits.

Anthropic is set to start marketing its IPO as soon as the week of 9 November, Bloomberg reported. That would let it begin trading before the US Thanksgiving holiday. Jim Edwards wrote for Fortune that it will seek a $2tn valuation, citing the Journal. Some investors are weighing a lower valuation of about $1.5tn, Reuters reported last week.

Bloomberg also asked analysts about the spending plans.

“The additional spending plans are positive for the semiconductor supply chain but whether they materialize is highly uncertain,” Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privée, told Bloomberg.

Anna Wu, founder of Floodlines Research, called the plans a mixed signal for markets.

“$750 billion will mean more demand for all-things AI in the medium to long term,” Wu told Bloomberg.

One Anthropic investor told Axios the latest results were “spectacular”.

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