New Zealand voters face weeks of political limbo after a knife-edge election left the country’s conservative coalition government at risk of losing its majority following just a single term in office.
Saturday’s preliminary results show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led coalition with a two seat majority. But the margin is so tight, a small variance in the final tally could yet leave the opposition left-wing bloc with a chance to form a government.
Luxon told supporters gathered in Auckland that while it looked like his party had a pathway to form the next government, the race remained “too close to call.”
He said the country would need to wait until the Electoral Commission delivered the final official results on November 27 for certainty. Coalition negotiations could then drag on for weeks before a government is formed.
Preliminary numbers show the right-wing coalition grouping has 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament.
Should it fall short of a majority, Luxon would likely need to turn to the progressive centrist Opportunity party , which will enter parliament for first time, for support. Prior to the election he had ruled out working with the party.
The center-left Labour party received the highest share of the popular vote under the country’s mixed-member proportional voting system by a tiny margin, but a stronger performance in individual electorates has delivered National more seats in parliament.
Labour Leader Chris Hipkins made light of Saturday’s inconclusive results as he addressed supporters in Wellington, saying: “Tonight, New Zealand has spoken. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said.”
Hipkins – who served briefly as prime minister in 2023 – did not concede, telling the crowd that “every vote matters. And every vote must be counted.”
The opposition grouping of center-left Labour, the leftist Greens and indigenous party Te Pati Māori is projected to have 57 seats. But the bloc could have a path to power if it picked up some additional seats in the final count, and if it secured the support of Opportunity.
The incumbent coalition – the country’s most right-wing in a generation – took power in 2023, capitalizing on an electorate looking for change in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
But its struggle to secure an emphatic victory this time signifies the level of public discontent over living costs, stubbornly high unemployment rates and concerns over healthcare.
Luxon’s center-right National party emerges a diminished force, crashing to just 29.3% of the popular vote, down from 38% in 2023, according to the preliminary count.
Its coalition partners, the right-wing-libertarian ACT party and the nationalist New Zealand First Party, increased their vote share to 11% and 10% respectively, putting them both in a stronger position to dictate terms in pending coalition talks.
The stronger-than-expected result for New Zealand First and ACT, and National’s weakened position, raises the prospect of the coalition moving further to the right in a second term and further embracing culture-war policies.
On the campaign trail the ACT vowed to end affirmative action schemes at the country’s medical schools, while New Zealand First promised sweeping immigration changes and voiced support for a review of the ban on gay conversion therapy.
Luxon, would also have a complex job filling key cabinet posts in a second term, with a raft of senior lawmakers from his National party, including finance minister Nicola Willis and parliament’s speaker Gerry Brownlee, losing their seats.
Swing voters turned away from National and Labour, which have dominated Wellington politics for nearly a century, opting to support minor parties entrenched further to the right and the left, as well as Opportunity in the center.
The party, which secured 6% of the vote, becomes the first total outsider party (not involving established political figures) to enter parliament since the country moved to a mixed-member proportional voting system in the mid-1990s.
Depending on the final vote tally, Opportunity, which positions itself as both business-and climate-friendly, could yet find itself in the kingmaker position – with both the right and the left groupings vying for its support.
