The National Party is off to a good start in early counting for the New Zealand election, as Prime Minister Chris Luxon eyes a second term.
With 10 per cent of votes counted, National is on 31.2 per cent of the vote, edging Labour on 28.3 per cent.
With National's partners ACT on 11.3 per cent and NZ First on 9.7 per cent, the coalition is projected to win a majority in the next parliament.
The result of the election has been in the balance for the entirety of the six-week campaign, which was dominated by cost-of-living issues.
In almost every poll over that time, upstart teal party Opportunity looked to be electing MPs for the first time and holding the balance of power.
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While Opportunity is at 5.6 per cent on early counting — and therefore heading to parliament — the early strength of the centre-right vote means they may be heading for opposition rather than playing kingmaker.
The Greens are on track for their best-ever election result, on 12.7 per cent, but like Labour, are set for another term in opposition.
Labour campaign spokesperson Kieran McAnulty conceded the National Party's vote — which was above late-published polling — was higher than the party expected.
The election was a rematch of the 2023 election, when Chris Luxon ended Labour's six years in power, defeating Chris Hipkins who inherited the prime ministership from Jacinda Ardern.
Early results have proved similar to the final vote tallies in previous counts, given the nationwide vote is combined together.
The other issue at play is strategic voting, which is the practice of voters sharing support among two parties.
In New Zealand, voters get to make two votes: one for an electorate MP and one for a party.
The proportional representation system is meant to produce a parliament that reflects each party's share of the nationwide party vote.
However, if Kiwis vote for more electorate MPs from a particular party than their party vote would entitle them to, they get to keep the extra MPs in what is called an overhang.
The right-wing coalition parties ACT and NZ First have urged right-leaning voters to embrace strategic voting and send a party vote their way to maximise the overall share of MPs from the right.
The collapse of the National Party's vote — from 38 per cent at the last election — while maintaining an edge in many electorates puts them on track for that overhang.
Similarly, the Māori Party — which is polling at 0.4 per cent but leading in five electorates — would also generate an overhang.
The National overhang, as things currently stand, means the party will not elect MPs from its list, ending the political careers of a string of senior figures.
