For many Victorians, there is no one singular burning issue that crystallises the mood heading into this year’s state election. Rather, as the inimitable Dennis Denuto famously said in The Castle , it’s the vibe.
After 12 years in government and three Labor premiers, there is a distinct mood for change in the air. But what direction that change will take is still very much up for debate.
Whether it’s potholes, data centres, hospital waiting times, housing affordability and accessibility, allegations of corruption on government Big Build sites or just a general frustration of unmet promises, there’s a veritable cornucopia of issues for voters to choose from this time around.
Whatever happens on November 28, the outcome is likely to be historic. If Labor manages to hold on, their consecutive fourth-term win will be a first for the party, and something the state hasn’t seen in more than 50 years. If the Liberals take office, Jess Wilson will become the first female-elected premier of Victoria – and one of the youngest at just 36 years old. And then there is One Nation, whose rising popularity remains the biggest unknown.
With so many variables at play, we’ve embedded four of our journalists into electorates across the state to hit the streets, speak with locals, scrutinise candidates and their campaigns, and provide a real-time vibe check.
Victorian affairs editor Annika Smethurst is in Hawthorn, a seat once considered a jewel in the Liberal Party’s crown. But much like the federal electorate of Kooyong (which Hawthorn sits within), any guaranteed safety the Liberals once enjoyed in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs is long gone.
The threat of the so-called teal independents isn’t the only thing that makes Hawthorn especially noteworthy this year, though.
The past four years of John Pesutto’s political life could hardly be described as smooth. After winning the seat back in 2022, his most recent term in parliament has included a stint as the opposition leader, a drawn out legal battle with a former colleague that came with a bill of more than $2.6 million, and a move to the backbench.
For most, this would be enough to call it a day. And yet, in a sit down interview with Smethurst we’ll be publishing next week, the 56-year-old says he is optimistic about his chances of returning to Spring Street, and possibly earning a cabinet position.
Another seat where the national mood could inform what happens at a state level is Shepparton, which neighbours Farrer – the federal electorate One Nation claimed from the Liberals in a shock byelection victory earlier this year.
Much like Hawthorn for the Liberals, Shepparton has long been considered a safe seat for the Nationals, having only been held by people outside the party twice in its 59 years.
With One Nation representing a tide of change for disillusioned voters and breathing down the Nationals’ neck, senior city reporter Angelica Snowden is busy pounding the region’s pavements to get a sense of where things are headed, and the major issues keeping voters up at night.
In Ringwood, sports affairs reporter Bridget McArthur has been getting well acquainted with the EastLink, and taking the temperature in a seat Labor picked up as part of the “Danslide” election in 2018, but could be lost thanks to a controversial outgoing member and undelivered election promises.
Following in the footsteps of Will Fowles, the Labor member who turned independent after being kicked out of the party by Daniel Andrews in 2023, the party’s candidate for Ringwood this year, Rachel Halse, will have a tough job trying to retain the margin Labor once enjoyed. But as an emergency nurse running in a seat where health and aged care are among the biggest employers, it would be a mistake to count anything – or anyone – out yet.
In Sydenham, the sparks are well and truly flying. Investigative reporter Liam Mannix describes the electorate as “a genuine three-horse race” between Labor, the Liberals and One Nation. And with the retirement of Natalie Hutchins, Labor’s sitting member, this will be a race of untested candidates, which is always a guarantee for compelling viewing.
Traditionally seen as a central brick in Labor’s “Red Wall”, Sydenham locals in a recent focus group made it clear that like other seats across the state, theirs is ripe for turning.
For those outside of these electorates, fear not. We will be travelling across the state to cover the big issues, while the Spring Street bureau will be on the campaign trail to offer extensive and in-depth stories from the road.
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