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Washington: JD Vance blaming the Republicans’ midterm rout on the Iran war was surprising not because of the substance, but because we are so unfamiliar with anyone in this administration saying openly that Donald Trump got it wrong.
That was effectively Vance’s message on Wednesday (Washington time). In a 600-word post on X, he did not just say the war caused higher petrol prices , which Trump accepts, but that the war was not worth the electoral cost, with which Trump disagrees.
He also identified four things that Trump/Vance voters wanted: end the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America first and “change our relationship to Israel”.
Vance’s reaction to the midterm results was always going to be fascinating. As a potential 2028 presidential contender , he is possibly the biggest loser from a day on which Americans voiced their dissatisfaction with the mob that’s currently in charge.
But it depends on how you parse the politics of what happened. Did Americans move away from Trumpism, populism and conservatism? Or did they determine that Trump and his Republicans failed to deliver on the populism, isolationism and “America First” doctrine they had promised?
Vance believes it’s the latter. And his election autopsy tried to position him as the movement’s future standard-bearer – one who would really put America first, rather than paying lip service to the idea.
He hit upon the same themes that were discussed that morning by MAGA influencer Steve Bannon and long-time Trump adviser Jason Miller, who recently returned to the White House in a strategy role, on Bannon’s War Room TV show and podcast.
Bannon and Miller spoke of the need to end the Iran war, reject any Democratic push for amnesties for illegal immigrants, and rethink the US relationship with Israel – all things Vance highlighted.
“The president said it last night – I’ve got to applaud him on this – Israel being a strong ally, they don’t need to get $US4 billion ($5.7 billion) a year or whatever it is the US is sending them,” Miller said on the show. “When we talk about America first, that means America first.”
Alexander Gray, a Republican on the National Security Council during Trump 1.0, and is now chief executive of advisory firm American Global Strategies, supported Vance’s analysis.
Some Republicans would predictably seek to parse the election results as “a repudiation of America First”, he wrote on X. But “the data makes clear that the message that won in 2024 hasn’t ceased being on the money; voters just didn’t perceive the Republicans to be standing for it this cycle”.
We know that Vance was never on board with the war started by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As a member of the executive, he was bound to publicly defend the president’s decision. Clearly, he believes the election loss now gives him more freedom.
Vance has always been an opportunist: he was once sharply critical of Trump, even describing him as “America’s Hitler” , before changing his stance when it became politically expedient. On CNN, conservative writer Jonah Goldberg called Vance “exceedingly deceitful” amid Wednesday’s election fallout.
But the vice president believes his path to the presidency, if he runs, depends on holding together Trump’s MAGA coalition. He sees the isolationist, Tucker Carlson-type part of their base – the so-called “new right” – as a key component. His problem with the Iran war was not just the price of fuel, but that it further aligned the United States with Israel and jettisoned America First.
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, said on i24 that it was “unfortunate” to bring Israel into the Republicans’ drubbing. “It’s very easy to always blame Israel for everything, but that is not the case.”
Things can and will change over the coming 18 months; some may work in Vance’s favour, others not. Some solution to the Iran war will probably be found; petrol prices will most likely come down. Netanyahu may no longer be Israel’s prime minister . Democrats might succeed in Congress, or they could overplay their hand.
Vance probably needs Trump’s endorsement to become the Republican nominee, which is why some people were surprised that he made the comments that he did on Wednesday.
But Trump may well have licensed Vance’s strategy. He said he had spoken to Vance, and the vice president’s statement was “good”. Maybe he wouldn’t run, Trump said casually. “Maybe nobody’s going to run.”
And Trump’s endorsement may also be a diminishing currency. His persistently low approval ratings are unlikely to change. It’s very difficult for the vice president of an unpopular president to succeed; we saw that with Kamala Harris after Joe Biden.
But Harris barely tried to differentiate herself from Biden (and Biden told her not to). What we saw from Vance today was the start of his effort not to make the same mistake.
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