Democrats have won three of the four congressional seats in Florida that Republicans redrew this year in their favor, and are narrowly leading in the fourth. It’s a surprising result that underscores how strongly Democratic candidates are performing on election night.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis and Republicans who control the state legislature redrew the state’s congressional map earlier this year to create four new districts – the ninth, 14th, 22nd, and 25th – that favored Republicans. Had the districts been in place in 2024, Donald Trump would have won all but one by double digits. He would have won the final district by about nine points.
But on Tuesday, Democrats wound up winning three of those seats. Democrats Kathy Castor, Pia Dandiya, and Jared Moskowitz are projected to win the 14th, 22nd, and 25th districts. Democrat Darren Soto is leading in the ninth district.
The Republican push in Florida was part of a nationwide effort by Trump and allies to redraw districts across the country. Republicans in Texas, Florida, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, and North Carolina were among those that redrew districts in their favor.
In addition to the districts in Florida, some of the new congressional districts in Texas and North Carolina appeared winnable for Democrats.
Nicholas Stephanopoulos, an election law professor at Harvard, cautioned against taking the wrong conclusion away from Democratic wins in the gerrymandered districts.
“Gerrymandering isn’t yielding the gains GOP hoped . . . IN A BLUE WAVE ENVIRONMENT,” he posted on X . “In a NEUTRAL environment, they’d be gaining around nine seats net. Even in this environment, their new maps will perform better than their old maps would have.”
Their victories came as part of what appeared to be a staggeringly strong night for Democrats in Florida. Trump easily won the state in 2024 and four years ago, Governor Ron DeSantis won the state by nearly 20 points. The state that Barack Obama won twice had come to be seen as a kind of lost cause for Democrats.
Incumbent senator Ashley Moody bested Democratic challenger Angie Nixon by a narrow margin, and Republican Byron Donalds barely triumphed in the gubernatorial race that few observers initially believed would be close.
