Stock futures gained Tuesday evening as strong results from chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices boosted sentiment and traders largely anticipated Democrats to win the House of Representatives — and possibly squeak out a majority in the Senate — as results of 2026 U.S. midterm elections begin rolling in.
S&P 500 futures traded 0.3% higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.5%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 40 points, or 0.1%.
Advanced Micro Devices had the biggest influence over the market as futures trading began, with its shares surging double digits in post-market action. The company, a key player in the AI trade driving the bull market, reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that blew past analyst expectations, with data center revenue almost doubling from a year ago. Nvidia , Intel and Micron Technology were higher in sympathy.
According to polls and prediction markets, there is near certainty that Democrats will take control of the House, with traders on Kalshi and Polymarket calling for a more than 90% chance of victory in that chamber. Traders are less certain about Senate control, though contracts for that outcome stand at more than 70% for Democrats.
"History tells you in the first few days after election, there's this need to digest what just happened," said Philip Blancato, Osaic chief market strategist. If stocks come under pressure because of the election results, the market will "eventually recover and finish the year higher" in accordance with historical trends , he said.
If a Democrats were able to secure a sizable majority in the Senate — the so-called blue wave scenario — the market, especially stocks related to the artificial intelligence buildout, could come under pressure on Wednesday, according to some on Wall Street. Investors fear a big Democrat win could mean more restrictions on data centers nationwide. AI-linked stocks have already pulled back in recent weeks on concern about a slowing pace in data-center spending.
"I think the market broadens out significantly," Blancato added. "In that scenario of a Democratic sweep when there's less funding for AI or less support for data centers specifically, I think the rest of the market will do quite well because of how strong earnings have been."
On the overall market, investors believe a blue wave would also be a headwind as it likely rules out any more business-friendly policies like tax breaks and possibly increases scrutiny on industries like banking. Conversely, stocks could see some short-term momentum if Republicans end up retaining control of one or both chambers. To be sure, the polls have yet to fully close in all states, and CNBC has not called any races.
The AI trade recovered a bit during Tuesday's session with the Nasdaq Composite rising nearly 1%, bolstered by gains in chipmakers. The S&P 500 also finished higher with a 0.3% climb, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 200 points, or 0.5%, lower.
A slate of stocks moved sharply in extended trading, largely driven by the latest earnings reports:
Read more about Tuesday's movers in extended trading here .
Asia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open Wednesday, as investors assessed a rebound in Wall Street technology stocks while awaiting the results of the U.S. midterm elections.
Futures for Japan's Nikkei 225 in Chicago were at 63,410, while in Osaka they were last at 63,090 compared with the index's previous close of 63,081.86.
Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index last traded at 23,400 compared with the index's last close of 23,525.97.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.5% in early trading.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 opened higher on Tuesday evening.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.5%. However, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 60 points, or 0.1%.
