The prime minister wants an ‘honest discussion’ about how immigration has changed since Brexit
Good morning. In a Today programme interview broadcast this morning at 8.10am, Shabana Mahmood , the home secretary, ended by saying this about her plans to tighten the rules that determine when foreign workers and their dependants can get settlement.
double quotation mark As a result of these changes, roughly half a million people who were going to settle at five years are not now going to settle. So on any measure, these are still very significant changes.
She is right, as Libby Brooks explains in her First Edition briefing on the story this morning.
But that does not mean it has not been awkward for Mahmood, who recorded the Today interview, and other interviews, last night. Although her plans amount to a very significant tightening of the indefinite leave to remain (ILR) rules, they are notably less strict than the version she announced last November, which is why they are reasonably being described as a U-turn. In her interviews she had to make two significant concessions.
Mahmood appeared to accept that her U-turn could cost billions. She insisted that, compared with doing nothing, her plans will lead to significant savings. But she would not dispute claims that the savings would have been far higher if she had stuck to the 2025 plans. When the BBC’s Iain Watson put it to her that the concessions would in effect cost about £7.5bn, Mahmood just said an impact assessment would be published in due course.
Mahmood refused to deny that she was in effect ordered to change her plans by Andy Burnham .
I will post more from these interviews soon.
Mahmood was also quite interesting on freedom of movement, an issue which has been yanked into the headlines again by an interview that Burnham gave to ITV for a documentary being broadcast tonight. Burnham said:
double quotation mark I have not proposed freedom of movement coming back.
I do believe that we should have an honest discussion with people about how immigration has changed since the Brexit vote because the shorter-term migration of people coming from Europe and then going back has been replaced with long-term settlement in bigger numbers, and that was the Boriswave …
I think public opinion has changed nationally.
But I want to be really clear on this issue. I will not run ahead of public opinion. The public need to be the boss when it comes to whatever happens with Brexit.
This is true, and in some respects just old news. Burnham has not made any specific proposals for a new relationship with the EU; he has just opened a debate on this.
But, in opening that debate, Burnham clearly implied that there would be a strong case for fighting the next election on a pledge to take the UK back into the single market, which would involve accepting freedom of movement rules. And Burnham has said that he would like the UK to rejoin the EU in his lifetime, which of course would also mean embracing freedom of movement. The language in the ITV interview implies Burnham is a bit nervous about being seen to have pre-judged where the debate might end up.
Freedom of movement also came up in Mahmood ’s interviews. On Sky News , she refused to say what she felt about the UK rejoining the freedom of movement system. And, on the Today programme, she implied that she had not had much warning about Burnham’s decision to open up a debate on this in his speech to Labour’s conference. She also stressed that Labour was “absolutely bound by the terms of our manifesto”, which ruled out single market membership before the next election. She gave the impression that, like John Healey and Jonathan Reynolds, she is not 100% aligned with Burnham’s pro-EU aspirations.
10am: Kemi Badenoch gives a speech on defence at a rally in London.
11.30am: John Healey, the chancellor, takes questions in the Commons.
Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
After 12.30pm: MPs resume their debate on the budget.
2pm (UK time): Andy Burnham and King Charles attend the opening ceremony for the Commonwealth heads of government meeting (Chogm) in Antigua. Later Burnham will be attending a heads of government meeting.
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