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Markets predicted Trump’s 2024 win. They’re on the sidelines now

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) •
November 03, 2026 • 05:00 AM
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Anyone looking to global markets for a clue as to how the midterms will pan out will have to wait for the result. But expect a reaction, no matter what happens.

Markets predicted Trump’s 2024 win. They’re on the sidelines now

This time two years ago, global markets were telling us what the polls were loath to call: Donald Trump was about to defy predictions and storm home against Kamala Harris to become US president for the second time.

Bitcoin surged to then-near-record levels because of Trump’s support for all things crypto, while traders and money managers moved decisively into inflation hedges such as gold and the US dollar.

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