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Since the beginning of the US midterm campaigns , which reach their climax today, Donald Trump has held three rallies in my home state of South Carolina.
Republicans haven’t had to worry about South Carolina elections for a long time. We last elected a Democrat to statewide office in 2006. We most recently sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1998.
But 2026 is redrawing the political map. States like South Carolina that went for Trump by double digits are now open ground – enough to warrant the million-plus dollars it costs to host one of his rallies.
The US president’s rally schedule makes it clear how far the map has shifted. In the past month, he has held 28 rallies. Just one was in a state that Trump lost in 2024.
Republicans may well still hold some ground in today’s midterms. But they are playing defence all the way to the horn.
Trump has delivered on many of his policies, but voters have not seen the outcomes they were promised.
Many Trump supporters are struggling with the effects of his immigration policy and the rising cost of fuel and other necessities as a result of the war in Iran.
In 2024, Trump’s message was that somewhere out in the ether, certain groups of Americans were getting a better deal than his voters. And those people deserved to be punished.
It could be understood as an economic pitch: if those Americans lost their supposed ascendancy, MAGA voters would gain it. Two years down the line, Trump’s policies have raised the cost of living for those voters who put him in office. We are seeing that a politics of retribution tends not to help the people most susceptible to its appeal.
This is especially true in the rural and agricultural states that Trump won easily in 2024 and where Democratic challengers now find life: places like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and even Alaska.
Many farmers across the US are seeing rising costs and less cash coming in.
One Kansas family told CBS News on the weekend that they’re paying $US737,375 ($1,053,905) more to stay afloat this year, mostly as a result of rising fuel costs, while their revenue is down $US325,000 mostly because international markets are drying up under Trump’s tariffs. They’ve had to sell land that’s been in their family for 140 years to keep their farm from going under.
Larry Preisser, the owner of that farm, is voting for a Democrat for the first time in his life. His son is still deciding whether to vote at all.
And the impacts of Trump’s immigration policies extend far beyond individual farms.
In communities that rely on agriculture, workers are staying home out of fear of immigration raids. Farm processing slows and shipments get delayed. Communities are discovering just how dependent they are on immigrant labor. Entire regions are losing tax revenue and cash flow, hurting schools and other businesses.
The percentage of Republicans who say that Trump is responsible for their economic pain has doubled this year, up to 35 per cent in October, according to Pew Research Centre .
Trump has done what he said he would do. Targeted immigrants. Imposed tariffs and confronted allied countries. Largely dismantled institutions he had spent years attacking, such as the Department of Education, USAID, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and public broadcaster PBS.
This demolition derby may have satisfied some of the bloodlust of the disaffected, but it hasn’t done much to improve the lives of the people cheering it on.
The contradiction at the heart of these politics is that the people voting for the punishment to be meted were also punished. Farmers need immigrant labor. Factory workers depend on foreign customers. Their kids need good public schools and healthcare.
Despite the myth of the lonesome cowboy, America has always been a place of necessary interdependence. Our greatest moments have come when individuals could excel because everyone around them could succeed too.
American astronauts beat the world to the moon after president John F. Kennedy called the nation to ask not what their country could do for them, but what they could do for their country.
It was a massive collective undertaking, backed by public institutions and private innovation. Extraordinary achievement was made possible because the country was united for a common purpose.
Trump has spent a decade teaching people to resent their neighbours and the institutions upon which their own prosperity rests. It has been a profound narrowing of who belongs in a community. It has been a cynical approach. Today we will see the electoral consequences.
It would be overstatement to suggest this election is a sudden recollection of some lost American altruism. Voters may still feel compelled by the punishment Trump promises – but they are seeing the cost.
As polls close on Tuesday in the US, there are a few competitive races that will give us some early signs. In South Carolina’s First Congressional District, and Virginia’s First and Second, polls close at 7pm local time (11am AEDT). The results of these three districts, which Trump won in 2024, will show how far the needle has moved this year.
In this midterm battle, Trump is asking these voters to keep his political project alive.
He spent a decade promising voters that someone else would pay the price for the world he wanted to build. Now, the voters that put him back in office are being asked how much they’re willing to pay.
Cory Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne looking at the impact of AI on democracy. He previously served in the Biden-Harris administration.
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