President Donald Trump promised voters angry about inflation that he would slash gas prices below $2 a gallon within his first year in office.
"My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office," Trump said in a speech to the New York Economic Club in September 2024 during his re-election campaign.
"Energy was what caused our problem initially," he told voters. "Energy is going to bring us back. That means we're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon."
But when voters head to the ballot box on Tuesday energy prices will remain a headache. Gas and diesel prices are forecast to be the highest ever on an election day, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
"Prices have never been this high this late in the year," De Haan said.
Gas prices stood at a national average of $4.20 a gallon on Friday, nearly 40% above the same period last year. The price of diesel, critical to transportation and agriculture, has surged about 70% over the past year, to $6.32 a gallon.
During the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the year that Russia invaded Ukraine and triggered an energy crisis, retail gas prices stood at $3.80, according to AAA data.
"Trump got in his own way," De Haan said. "Back in December, we predicted that 2026 was going to be the cheapest year for gas since 2020. That required no effort. And obviously, it hasn't gone that way."
Fuel prices have spiked since Trump decided to attack Iran in a joint attack with Israel on Feb. 28. Tehran retaliated with a wave of strikes on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, severely depressing oil flows through the vital shipping route.
Trump told voters at a rally in Michigan last Sunday that rising fuel prices are a "small price to pay" to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
"Once this conflict comes to an end, gas prices will drop drastically, and the Iranian terrorist regime will not have a nuclear weapon," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement.
The White House said gas prices when adjusted for inflation have been higher around previous election days.
Exports through Hormuz have rebounded since the summer as the U.S. military helped ships through the strait. But the Middle East disruption has been compounded by Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi Arabian refineries, and Ukraine's strikes on refineries in Russia. Trump had promised to end that war in the first week of his second term, but the conflict is stuck in an intractable stalemate.
"Frankly, diesel is the key crunch point here because it is so critical to economic growth," ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC on Friday after the nation's largest oil company posted huge profits thanks to the disruptions.
Airlines have hiked their fares to cover high costs from jet fuel, their biggest expense other than labor, hurting the fight to contain inflation.
Trump came under political pressure from Republicans to take action on fuel prices ahead of Tuesday's election. The cost of diesel is hurting big farm states like Iowa that have overwhelmingly backed Trump in his presidential campaigns. The senate race in the Hawkeye State has become competitive.
Trump briefly contemplated a diesel export ban as Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) lobbied to help the state's farmers. The president decided against it because it might also have raised gasoline prices.
Instead, Trump issued an executive order to allow truckers to use tax-exempt, offroad diesel on U.S. highways, and announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hit by high fuel prices.
Trump later struck a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to export about 6 million barrels of diesel into the global market through November.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and even some Republican senators slammed the agreement as rewarding Russian aggression. Energy analysts said the diesel volumes in the Russia deal are small compared to global demand and won't have a meaningful impact on prices.
More recently, crude oil prices have rallied ahead of the election. Trump has said he will not resume strikes on Iran before the midterms. But the market is pricing in the risk of another round of fighting after voting ends on Tuesday. International Brent crude oil prices are up more than 13% in October and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is up 15%.
"If there are escalations, that could obviously put upward pressure on prices just ahead of Thanksgiving," De Haan said, "which is also when Americans have really staunch traditions in terms of driving to friends and family."
