One Nation’s prospects in the NSW and Victorian elections are vastly different. The results, especially in optional-preferential NSW, will not tell us much about the party’s chance of holding the balance of power, or even its number of potential seats, in a 2028 federal parliament.
Take Victoria. Highly urbanised and historically wealthy enough to prefer noblesse oblige , Victoria lacks the regional seats that One Nation needs to reduce Liberal-National party room numbers. That Victoria has had only two Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party representatives in the parliament is proof enough.
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