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Shaun Carney | The Sydney Morning Herald

Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) •
October 28, 2026 • 06:00 PM
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Shaun Carney is a regular columnist, an author and former associate editor of The Age.

Shaun Carney | The Sydney Morning Herald

Halfway through the government’s second term, how many ordinary Australians could identify what its big defining goals are?

Something powerful is going on in the way that we accept complexity, and place trust in politicians.

You don’t need to peer too far back into the past to be reminded how public sentiment can rearrange itself at the pointy end of a poll.

Anthony Albanese’s hare-and-the-tortoise political strategy, built on policy incrementalism, is now on life support. Angus Taylor is a store-bought Liberal leader who looks the part but will eventually have to make way for Andrew Hastie.

The government has dragged the chain on issue after issue – home invasions, tobacco store firebombings, bail for youth offenders, the degradation of retail strips and more.

After getting smashed at an election, the conventional expectation is that if you keep plugging away, the supporters will return over time. But what if, post-thrashing, even more supporters walk away?

A term of leadership is an extravagantly heightened example of life in miniature, something akin to a stop-motion film of a flower growing, blooming and dying all inside 30 seconds.

Bitter rivals? Brothers and sisters in arms? Frenemies? How best to characterise the relationship between the Coalition parties and One Nation?

Unfortunately for media outlets prosecuting the case against the budget and the government with relentless vigour, the signs that their efforts are bearing fruit are somewhere between microscopic and non-existent.

Let us project forward. It’s early 2028, and the unofficial campaign for the federal election, due in May, has well and truly begun. Pauline Hanson is helping rule Victoria and has done well in NSW. Will she ride the wave into the Lodge?

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Shaun Carney is a regular columnist, an author and former associate editor of The Age.

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