New surveys confirm just how much Democrats have expanded the Senate map in the 2026 midterm elections.
The New York Times/Siena polls — the first high-quality surveys in some states — show Democrats with a bona fide pickup opportunity in South Carolina and possibly another one in Florida. The Minnesota survey, meanwhile, suggests that GOP hopes of an unlikely pickup there might have been dashed.
One poll in a given state should not be oversold. (And despite Democratic momentum, many races this year are within the margin of error .) But given the dearth of polling in these three particular states — and the stakes of each race this year — the new surveys are worth delving into.
The big news is that appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48% among likely voters in South Carolina.
It’s the first high-quality public poll of the state, and it suggests the race is not just potentially winnable for Democrats, but something of a toss-up, which is astounding in a state President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024.
It comes after another Times/Siena poll showed a dead heat in Kansas — a state Trump won by 16 points.
And it’s clear why the South Carolina race is close: Republicans nominated a Trump-picked candidate with major qualification questions looming over her.
While likely voters said by 13 points that Andrews (who is a physician) has the “right experience to be an effective senator,” they say by 7 points that Graham (the previously largely unknown sister of the late GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham) does not .
Among independents, 59% say Andrews has the right experience, while just 31% say Graham does.
While 62% of Democrats strongly agree that Andrews has the right experience, only 35% of Republicans strongly agree that Graham does.
That’s a brutal assessment from Graham’s own party.
All of which helps explain why Andrews leads 57%-37% among independents and even pulls 7% of Republican likely voters.
The data also suggests that GOP attempts to paint Andrews as an extremist — largely by invoking her past comments on transgender rights and using an anti-transgender slur against her — have so far fallen flat. Just 39% of likely voters in this conservative state say she’s too far to the left.
There’s not yet high-quality polling in some other red states where the GOP could be feeling nervous — like Nebraska and even Mississippi, where Trump appeared on Monday. But the Times/Siena polls in Kansas and South Carolina show that Democrats have lots of opportunities.
Another big finding was a poll suggesting Democrats don’t have too much to worry about in Minnesota. Up until now, the limited evidence had suggested the state, which backed Kamala Harris by 4 points, was something of a Democratic headache .
The New York Times/Siena survey shows Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Republican former TV sportscaster Michele Tafoya 54%-40% .
The poll does suggest voters have real concerns about Flanagan being too far to the left, with even 17% of her own supporters saying that about her. She’s barely winning any GOP votes — unlike many other Democratic Senate candidates . And she’s not especially popular.
But the poll suggests the electorate could just be too friendly to Democrats for any of that to matter.
Democrats lead by 18 points on the generic ballot in the state, and 57% of likely voters have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump.
Even if the Minnesota electorate doesn’t wind up being quite as blue as that, Tafoya would seem to face an uphill battle in what looks like a good Democratic year. Flanagan even leads by double digits — 54%-39% — among independents.
A third survey seems to confirm that Florida — which has trended quite Republican in the Trump era — is a second-tier target for Democrats.
The poll shows GOP Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 6 points, 50-44% . It follows a University of North Florida poll last week that put Moody up by a similar 4-point margin, 49%-45% .
Republicans will be happy their lead remains outside the margin of error.
But that’s still competitive. Despite this state being widely written off when Democrats nominated Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, just 37% of likely voters say she’s too far to the left. And Nixon leads 52%-38% among independents.
It would seem difficult for Nixon to get over the hump in a state that has trended so Republican. But at the very least, the New York Times/Siena poll suggests the governor’s race is in play.
It shows GOP Rep. Byron Donalds at 48% and Democratic former Rep. David Jolly at 44% — a 4-point margin that is very close to the poll’s 3.9-point margin of error.
Even losing the governor’s race in Florida would be a major GOP setback.
