The Securities and Exchange Commission ‘s publication on Monday of Anthropic’s S-1 form —ahead of a heavily anticipated initial public offering—has led to plenty of discussion of whether the company’s quickly ballooning revenues will be able to overcome its even higher costs. But amid the numbers and forward-looking optimism about AI “rapidly transform[ing] every sector of the global economy in ways greater than the impact of industrialization, electricity, semiconductors, and the internet,” Anthropic also spends an inordinate amount of time in its S-1 laying out the myriad risk factors that could bring the company down.
Across 93 pages and over 70,000 words, Anthropic’s S-1 “Risk Factors” section discusses literally hundreds of potential problems that could negatively impact its business in the coming years. Many of these potential risks are the kind of standard worries about competition, costs, customer acquisition, and potential regulation that almost any business must worry about. But some risks highlight interesting potential points of failure for Anthropic specifically and the hype-filled AI bubble more generally.
After wading through Anthropic’s book-length treatise on its greatest risks, we’ve narrowed the list to the seven most surprising, interesting, or thought-provoking potential problems. Consider this a far-from-comprehensive look that potential Anthropic investors should keep in mind.
Let’s start with the biggest potential risks: Those that could “pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” as Anthropic writes. The company acknowledges that concerns about these risks “have been raised both within our organization and by other researchers, regulators, policymakers, and industry participants.”
The specific worry isn’t in any current Anthropic model, the company says, but near-future models that could “substantially automate AI research and development” on their own. If these systems were “allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy,” they could quickly advance to a point that “accelerate[s] AI progress beyond our ability to evaluate and safeguard new model,” Anthropic warns.
