The only way to make conditions for this year’s finale of The Block any tougher would be to schedule a cyclone. That’s the verdict from one agent ahead of the end-of-season auctions to be televised on November 1.
Amid economic storm clouds, new reserve-price laws and the latest cash rate rise, the hit Channel Nine renovation show could deliver one of the most brutal finales in 22 seasons.
While House 2’s agent, Quentin McEwing of McEwing & Partners Real Estate, is bracing for a battle like no other, he says the record-setting tax depreciation schedules and sheer quality of the homes might save them.
The finale will air just days after Domain figures revealed Australian house prices had their steepest quarterly decline on record, with Melbourne set to drop out of the $1 million median house price club .
The Domain House Price Report , released on Thursday, delivered another blow for The Block .
Domain chief residential economist Dr Nicola Powell says those figures don’t bode well for a show chasing a clean sweep.
“If we zoom into the Mornington Peninsula SA3 region, only half of the auctions were successful in September … so based on that, only half of The Block homes will sell,” she says.
Under new laws that took effect on October 1, Victorian sellers must disclose their reserves seven days out from an auction.
The Block ’s reserves – of $3.45 million – were “leaked” a week early by host Shelley Craft in an on-air slip up on The Today Show . The price guides were updated not long after, dropping from a range of $3.6 million to $3.9 million to $3.45 million to $3.75 million.
According to Powell, that reserve price and the way it was revealed says a lot.
“Having that lower reserve might actually help to increase participation … and that extra week could also work in their favour.
“I think The Block is responding to buyer power and Melbourne buyers have more choice than they’ve had in years.”
On paper, the five double-storey homes are a steal.
Perched in a gated community on the suburb’s “golden mile”, each boasts water views . Houses 1, 2 and 3 are set higher on the block on 1000-square-metre parcels with jaw-dropping views,, while houses 4 and 5 have partial water views but larger land plots. House 5 has the largest block, at 1435 square metres.
“There’s no doubt they will sell for a significant amount less than what you could buy those parcels for and build for, so right off the bat there’s good value,” McEwing says.
“I do think there will be buyers for the homes and we’re chatting to people now who are indicating they like it.”
The agent says he’s up against more than just market headwinds, but also a popularity contest that House 2 contestants Chantel and Wyatt aren’t winning. “The only thing that could make it worse is if they’d chosen a cyclone on the day,” he adds.
McEwing says that, as a first-time Block agent, he’s fascinated by how much influence the contestants have on the home.
“Normally for us, we sell bricks and mortar, but this is different,” he says. “Our contestants have been made out to be the villains … that’s been interesting from a marketing perspective.
3 Mackillop Place, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
Yet McEwing says low expectations from potential buyers have helped during the open-home inspections.
“We’ve had a lot of locals come through and a lot of them went there thinking, ‘I’m not going to like it.’ But when they get there and see it, they actually do,” he says.
“But my biggest concern is that I won’t have a buyer for House 2 – and it’s going to be on national television.”
9 Mackillop Place, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
Kayn Luff of O’Brien Real Estate is selling Courtney and Sev’s House 4 and agrees the market is tough but says buyer engagement has left him “pleasantly surprised”.
“I was a bit nervous leading into our first lot of opens – especially given all the hype – but actually the engagement we’ve had with inquiries has been great,” he says.
“The take-up has mostly been from locals, and it has been incredible.
“A lot are downsizers who are coming from bigger blocks but who want to keep the location, so these homes are offering a really good opportunity.
“When buyers have walked in, it’s that quality that they’ve commented on and how cohesive it is.
“But also, House 4 has the best kitchen in Block history and that comes from a fully qualified chef who was there on open day.”
4 Mackillop Place, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
As for the auction, Luff is pragmatic.
“We haven’t called any other auctions with this new reserve legislation, so we are going to be the guinea pigs on live TV in the most challenging market we have ever seen – and buyers don’t have to register either,” he says.
“Still, I feel good about it. It’s just about making sure you have buyers ready to engage … my advice to buyers is to come out strong and hard and high.
“I’m confident in our home and our contestants. But I would love for them to make some good money over the reserve.
“In any normal auction situation, you’d hit the reserve and the vendors would be happy, but on The Block, they need to get a long way over it to get something out of it, and that’s especially the case for these girls [Courtney and Sev], as they have to split it 50-50.”
2 Mackillop Place, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
Michelle Skoglund of Aqua Real Estate is handling Adam and Jolene’s House 1 and believes the auction will be an excellent playing field.
“With buyers knowing the reserve ahead of time, they will be able to get their finances in place,” she says.
Like Luff and McEwing, Skoglund says locals are dominating the buyer pool.
“I am seeing exactly who I thought would be coming through the opens and they are downsizers with adult children,” she says.
“But I now think I’ve got a 50 per cent chance of selling to an investor or a 50 per cent chance of selling to an owner-occupier.”
10 Mackillop Place, Mount Eliza VIC 3930
Mark Nunn, of Buxton Ballarat, is selling Lisa and Rosco’s House 3 and says he’s already fielding interest from familiar faces as well as locals.
“I’ve got a few buyers from last year who were underbidders and really wanted the Mount Eliza and Mornington Peninsula location,” he says.
“I actually think the price is really good and to try and replace these properties is going to be hard.”
Ash Marton of Ash Marton Realty is equally confident. He’s handling Rick and Tayla’s House 5 and has collected interest from local owner-occupiers and even a Queensland-based investor.
“The investor is looking at it purely through the lens of depreciation,” he says.
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Sarah Webb Sarah Webb is a journalist with almost 20 years’ experience covering general news, business and real estate in newsrooms across the country. She specialises in property markets, housing trends and urban change.
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