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Coalition could fall one or two seats short in Victoria

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) •
October 26, 2026 • 04:25 AM
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Campaign staff for the Victorian election have been warned not to get complacent about polls showing the Coalition is on track for majority government.

Coalition could fall one or two seats short in Victoria

Victorian Liberal staff and volunteers have been told not to get complacent about polls showing the Coalition is on track to win a ruling majority at next month’s election, with internal numbers suggesting the opposition could fall just one or two seats short, even after the expected big swings against Labor.

One Nation remains the wildcard factor in the Coalition’s chase for the net gain of 16 seats it needs to form government in its own right, and the election is tighter than it appears with many voters still undecided just over four weeks from election day, two Liberal sources within party campaign headquarters said on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.

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