Serbians are voting Sunday in a parliamentary election that is seen as a showdown between the Balkan country's populist leader Aleksander Vucic and a movement of university students who led protests against him for almost two years.
Though Serbia's 6.4 million voters get to choose from 18 parties hoping to enter the 250-member Parliament, the election has taken shape as a referendum between Vucic's right-wing Serbian Progressive Party and the youth-backed Students' List.
The main contenders are believed to be polling neck-and-neck, making Sunday's election the most uncertain in recent years. Turnout is expected to be high and could push most smaller parties below the 3 per cent threshold needed to make it into the assembly.
While Vucic has routinely outplayed Serbia's fractured opposition in the past, the leaderless youth movement has proved to be a tough opponent that rattled his firm grip on power in Serbia like no one else could in the past 14 years since his party took office.
A students' victory likely would resonate beyond Serbia as countries across Europe face youth and student protests.
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Recent elections have been marred by irregularities and the European Union is watching closely the conduct of Sunday's vote in a candidate nation for the bloc's membership.
Both international and local election monitors already have expressed concern about the safety and fairness of an election campaign marked by detentions, near-total government control over the media and reports of surveillance and cyberattacks against activists.
Local elections earlier this year in 10 municipalities in Serbia saw violent attacks on journalists and activists. The previous parliamentary vote in 2023 was followed by opposition protests alleging fraud.
If his SNS party wins the most votes, Vucic will become the prime minister after serving two near-full terms as president. He resigned the presidency last month to lead the campaign.
The populists' popularity has eroded since 16 people were killed two years ago when a concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in Serbia's north, setting off a wave of youth protests that demanded accountability for the disaster and justice for the victims.
The anger reflected widespread accusations of high-level corruption and cronyism. Protesters said that rampant graft led to negligence during renovation work at the Novi Sad station, and eventually to the canopy collapse.
Despite the protests, Vucic retains considerable support among Serbia's voters. Admirers view him as a capable leader who can steer the nation through global uncertainties — the image that was carefully crafted by the mainstream media.
The newly formed Students' List movement differs from any of the political organisations in Serbia. It is shaped by university students but none of them are actually on the list. Instead, the candidates are little known experts, athletes, farmers and artists.
This approach was meant to counter Vucic's one-man rule and restore a sense of community and solidarity. The “we know how” message during the campaign promised a non-partisan effort to rebuild Serbia's economy and democracy after a change of government.
With their youthful energy, the students have attracted voters who are disillusioned with local politicians. Vilified by pro-government media, students have cycled and walked through the country to reach voters in rural areas — Vucic's traditional strongholds.
Election surveys have come up with varied results while both camps say they are ahead. Some analysts fear post-election instability in case of a close result.
Vucic has said that his side would concede defeat if it lost the vote. But he has also warned that any protests that might erupt to claim fraud in case of his party's triumph would be immediately quashed.
The state election commission is not expected to release the official tally before Monday.
Magda Anastasijevic, the Eastern Europe analyst for the conflict monitor ACLED, said that electoral violence has been on the rise in Serbia recently, and could escalate, "particularly if the results are disputed."
