In the end, it wasn’t even close. Alberta’s preliminary referendum results were a definitive rejection of the idea that the province would be better off as an independent country. By a 3-to-1 margin, the province chose to remain in Canada and said “no” to a second, binding vote on secession.
Nonetheless, separatist activist Jeffrey Rath was rather cheerful when he spoke to CNN the morning after the loss. “We don’t see this as a setback,” Rath said Tuesday. “For a fledgling political movement, it was a major accomplishment and a hell of a victory.”
About a fourth of voters – over 500,000 Albertans – wanted another vote, the first step on a pathway towards secession from Canada. What now for them?
Despite their loss, the over half a million people that voted for a binding plebiscite on independence are here to stay, said Dr. Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta. And it will be worth watching what they turn their efforts to next.
“Separatism may have been rejected in Alberta, but they’ll move onto something else,” said Wesley, who spoke throughout the campaign in favor of staying in Canada. “Alberta separatism is only one element of a much broader, far-right populist movement in Canada.”
Wesley pointed out that the independence referendum wasn’t the only question on the ballot earlier this week. There were also five separate non-binding referenda about immigration, including whether the provincial government ought to take “increased control” and whether Alberta should require proof of citizenship to vote. With the unofficial results out, all appear to have passed.
“Alberta separatists have far more in common with the MAGA movement than they do with secessionist movements across the globe,” Wesley said. “They may lose on one issue, but they don’t go away. They adapt. They find another issue, and they seem to have found one on immigration.”
The movement has been complicated by its ties to right-wing politics in the United States, with high profile voices like US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and SpaceX founder Elon Musk egging them on.
Cory Morgan, who founded the Alberta Independence Party in 2000, told CNN that he has learned from the referendum that most people in Alberta simply did not want to separate. “The movement just isn’t ready, to be blunt,” Morgan said.
But he also argues that calls for separatism were overshadowed by the trade war with the United States and US President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada. Numerous separatists – including Rath himself – made trips to Washington to meet with members of the Trump administration looking for support — a tactic that may have backfired back home.
“It led to mistrust,” Morgan said. “I think that factor really did hinder the movement’s growth this year.”
Rath dismissed this analysis, saying that his meetings with the Trump administration were “very useful” for shoring up US support in case independence was achieved, and that people who were nervous about his movement’s high-level interactions with the US were being needlessly sensitive.
“Do people have a lot of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ in Canada? Yeah,” Rath said. “What can I say? It doesn’t take a lot to trigger them, and I’ll be frank – I’ve almost gone out of my way to trigger a lot of them.”
Alberta rejects secession referendum, chooses to remain part of Canada
Yet other separatist movements in Canada appear to have taken the hint. Quebec’s Parti Quebecois, which took control of the provincial legislature with just under a third of the vote, has pledged not to hold an independence referendum while Trump is president.
“Fear of United States annexation placed a huge cap on people’s willingness to take a chance at dividing Canada,” said Wesley, the political scientist. “The relationship with the United States was front and center in people’s minds as they were voting.”
Though Morgan thinks the independence movement isn’t ready to take another big swing, he thinks that the 500,000 votes that it earned on Monday are a good start.
“This was a solid base that said they’re ready to look at that option,” Morgan said. “And it’s not going away.”
